Watch the intensity step up a gear as the first week of finals begins. Form going in can be handy but at the end of the day it comes down to being the better team on match day….

Adelaide v Essendon

Essendon basically have played their elimination final game a week early with an intense clash against the Hawks to see the reigning premiers miss this years finals series.

The fallout from that game was huge for the Dons with suspensions to Patty Ryder, Matthew ‘Velvet Sledgehammer’ Lloyd, and Sam Lonergan.

Lloyd has a four game suspension to think about whether its bye bye from his AFL career, and the outs of Ryder and Lonergan are huge for the Bombers as both players have been a crucial part to the team this year.

In come Dempsey, Skipworth and Bellchambers to replace the 3 outs.

Meanwhile Adelaide are crowing (insert terrible pun here) after beating fellow finals competitors Carlton by a huge 72 points and the both teams managed to crack the ton with the Crows kicking 27 goals.

The Crows will take great confidence into this game with a depleted bombers side and the fact that Adelaide have won their past three games heading into this.

In comes Ricardo Douglas for Nathan Van Berlo ( Back ).

Questions surround whether the Bombers can lift after such an intense round 22 game that was basically played like a final.

Adelaide have been waiting for finals to start since the end of the season last year, and there is a weight of expectation in the City of Churches for the Crows to bring home some silverware.

Adelaide by 24 points.

Geelong v Western Bulldogs

An interesting game with not much separating these two teams in recent weeks. The Bulldogs have seemingly turned a corner after West Coast gave them a touch up with wins against Geelong, Brisbane and Collingwood – all finals contenders.

Winning form is good form but it says something when you beat flag fanciers Geelong and a dogged Collingwood side.

Could this be the year of the Dog?

I believe if the Western Bulldogs win this game they will be one of the two teams to battle it out in that last day in September.

The ins for the Dogs are Ryan Griffen and  Ben Hudson both handy inclusions who replace Andrejs Everitt and Sam Reid.

Geelong had an interesting few weeks to end the season with a 14 point loss to the Doggies and a comfortable victory against the ‘Laydown Sally’ Dockers. Some critics say they might be looking shaky with definitely question marks over the fitness of a few players and a lack luster finish to the season.

But this is finals football and I expect to say the Cats step it up a notch for this game.

The Cat’s game against Sydney in round 20 was a pressure cooker that they needed and a good indicator for Geelong for a finals intensity-like game.

The ins for Geelong are Paul Chapman and Travis Varcoe with doubts over the fitness of a few players in and out of the side.

The Cats are missing the magic of Stevie Johnson and although they want to rush him in as soon as possible, it just isn’t worth the risk.

Western Bulldogs by 12 points

Brisbane v Carlton

This match is anyone’s game with both teams having a similiar end to the season. Challenged against a few of the better sides, Brisbane have faltered losing to Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and drawing against Essendon.

Carlton have beaten a few of the cellar dwellers with the exception of their win against a battered Geelong team, but when faced against a full strength Adelaide Crows team they got pumped by 72 points.

Last time these two teams met in round 11 the Blues took the honours with a 6 point win up at the GABBA so home ground advantage counts for very little.

The ins for Brisbane are Daniel Bradshaw and  Daniel Merrett who were further bolster the Lions line up with their strength and height.

For the Blues back in the side are the 3 players the club suspended – Jeff Garlett, Eddie Betts and Cameron Cloke as well as Shaun Grigg.

Whether or not they can make a huge impact compared with the players they replaced only time will tell.

There are injury clouds over Simon Black and Josh Drummond but both player have been named in the Brisbane line up.

It will be another close encounter but I’m expecting a few young players for the Lions to step but there are too many players in the Lions lineup that don’t look 100 per cent and that could be the difference.

Carlton by 6 points.

St Kilda v Collingwood

A mouth watering match up as both the Magpies and Saints go into this game with near full strength line ups.

St Kilda had a couple of losses to the Kangaroos and Essendon which could make them look a bit vulnerable but may benefit from ‘resting’ certain players for the Finals.

The Saints have an interesting problem with too many players to choose from and not enough spots on the magnet board for coach Lyon to include them.

Michael Gardiner, Luke Ball and Max Hudghton have been named on the interchange but who do you drop to let them in?

Zac Dawson chosen as Hudghton’s replacement has played every game this season and has really stepped up to the challenge of playing on big name forwards.

Meanwhile at Pieland, Leigh Brown, Nathan Brown, Scott Pendlebury, and Steele Sidebottom are in while Tyson Goldsack misses out.

A handy bunch of ins for the Magpies but they too will also have to squeeze a lineup out somehow.

Last time these two teams met in round 7 the Saints absolutely smashed the Magpies by 88 points but since then Collingwood have gone from strength to strength.

If the Saints want to be serious about winning some silverware this is the game to show it.

St Kilda by 18 points.

Your AFL Finals Week One Tips & Observations

So what are your tips & observations for the 22nd round of AFL in 2009? Do you agree with Johnny? if yes or no please post your tips and observations about the first week of finals in the comments section.

We now include the total correct tips of the Kick2Kick writers & readers, so here they are (updated every week). If your doing better than any of us, let us know and include your own tips and score and we will be continuing the tipping count into the finals.

1. Craig: 124
2. Geoff: 123
3. JohnnyTruent: 120
4. Princess: 119
5. Martynkai: 116
6. Jermayn: 115

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• 2010 NAB Grand Final Tips (0)
• 2009 AFL Preliminary Finals Wrapup (25)