Ok, hands up who tipped more losers than winners last week?? Yup, me too. I’ve given up on studying teams, form, injuries etc. This week I am taking a new tact and selecting the teams based purely on psychological grounds. Sometimes teams are just due.

Looking back on last weekend it is easy to see that The Dogs were due for a loss, that Sydney would play the S.C.G perfectly (as they always do), Richmond probably took Melbourne lightly given they had played the Cats, Dogs and Blues whilst Port Adelaide are a bloody good footy side and Hawthorn are decimated with injuries. With that in mind lets see what we can come up with this week.

Leigh Montagna, Goddard & Dal Santo have improved out of sight & now are top AFL midfielders.

Power Vs Saints

The Saints have been nothing short of awesome so far this year. They have stepped up their defensive pressure which has forced teams into errors and getting hurt the other way. However, they are yet to face what i would call a genuine top 6 side and this weeks game will be their first real test. Given that the game is at night and in Adelaide conditions will likely be greasy and won at ground level. Both sides’ midfield have been outstanding so far and we should see some absorbing battles.

Montagna, Dal Santo, Ball, Hayes and Goddard vs Salopek, Boak, Pearce and the Cornes boys will be riveting to watch. I’m tipping Port because a) they are a good side, b) they are in good form, c) they are at home and d) St.Kilda have to lose at some stage.

Power by 8 points

Cats Vs Lions

The Cats are missing Harley, Egan, Hunt, Ottens and now Ling and have no key position forward that really dominates yet they manage to beat everyone they play. Why?? Because they are selfless, play for each other, discipined and everyone knows their role and plays it perfectly.

Brisbane are up and down and will continue to be all year, a new coach and uneven playing list will do that but they are on the right track.

Cats by 55 points

Bombers Vs Magpies

The ANZAC Clash is always one to watch and this year should be no different. The Dons have played better then I thought they would but it is a long year and they will continue to show some inconsistency. These games are generally pretty evenly matched and someone will have to step up at a crucial time to win the game for their team.

Collingwood have the likes of Didak, Medhurst and Thomas and should have enough fire power to get over the line.

Pies by 16 points

Hawks Vs Eagles

Interesting clash this one, The Eagles have shown plenty so far beating both the Dogs and Power at home and have started to run a couple of Premiership players back into form. Their midfield has been super with the under-rated Priddis in scintillating touch.

Normally I would back the Eagles given form and injuries but going with the psych theory I just can’t see the Hawks dropping two games in a row against interstate sides at home. They are a proud bunch and Lewis, Sewell and Campbell will be better for the run last week. Buddy and Roughie have had a less then glamorous start to the season and one or both will fire soon, might just be this week.

Hawks by 32 points

Dockers Vs Swans

Surely Freo have to win a game soon. They were deplorable last week kicking only 4 goals whilst the Swans were at their suffocating best pushing the Blues out wide and picking them off with ease. I have never really rated Craig Bolton but have watched him more closely this year given the amount of accolades he receives and he is as good as they come. He will do the job on Pavlich this week and the hardened and efficient midfield will be too tough for the Dockers to handle.

I’m expecting more of a fight this week but Sydney will still be too good.

Swans by 28 points

Bulldogs Vs Carlton

If the doggies get drawn into a shootout this Sunday they will be pulverised.. Last year in the corresponding game they were 6 goals up halway through the third and got rolled by 6 as the Judd and Fevola show kicked into gear. The Dogs play their best when they lockdown the other team and slowly grind away a victory. They have a tendency of reacting to how the other team is playing and this spells danger for this weekend.

Carlton and Bulldogs have a bit of recent history with some high scoring matches mixed with a tangle or two.

Both teams are coming off losses and should be breathing fire. If the Dogs let Carlton get out to a flying start (and i think they will) they will not reel them in.

Blues by 25 points

NMFC Vs Tigers

If Richmond can’t find the motivation to win for their members, Wallace and themselves this week then they never will.. Any team that can kick 8 goals in a quarter against the Cats at the Cattery can play footy. The problem for them is finding consistency. North don’t look to be as ‘shinbonerish’ as they have in past seasons and like a few sides have been a bit up and down.

The Tigers need to put this one away early because if it is close I have no doubts that they will get the death wobbles in the last quarter.

Tigers by 29 points

Demons Vs Crows

The demons have been really good in patches this season and rolled out a win last week, I think they will go in with a bit of confidence and will fancy themselves to knock off the Crows. Adelaide were brilliant last week and pushed Geelong for so much of the game yet still went down by 7 odd goals.

They have a knack of finding hidden gems in the draft and Craig has no hesitation in finding out if his youngsters are up to it. Petrenko, Otten, Tippet, Dangerfield and Walker were all impressive last week and the Crows should have too much class for the Dees.

Crows by 5 points

Your Round Five Tips

So what your tips for the fifth weekend of AFL in 2009? Please post them below in the comments section along with any other observations about round five.

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