Carlton v Collingwood

An interesting game with Carlton coming into form and winning now three in row and Collingwood coming off a loss to Hawthorn.

The Blues are sitting at 7th and are starting to gather momentum towards the end of the season with their winning run. But it has been against much weaker opponents than Collingwood.

And what can we make of the Magpie’s loss to Hawthorn by 45 points?

Are the Hawks back?  Is it an occurrence of Collingwood back to their old ways of losing the seemingly winnable games? Or can we all just write it off as a hiccup an nothing else?

I just don’t know how good the Blues really are as their season has been a see saw of  form.

Both Brendon Fevola and Chris Judd are red hot at the moment and for them to beat the Magpies these players need to fire.

I’m tipping Collingwood to overcome last week’s defeat and bounce back as they aim to stay in the top four on the ladder.

Collingwood by 18 points

Geelong v Hawthorn

A re-match of last year’s Grand Final sounded like a scintillating prospect at the start of the season but Hawthorn’s slump has taken away some of the anticipation for a terrific, tight, tussle.

Hawthorn in recent weeks have found some spark with two wins - one a real grind out against North Melbourne, the other a thrashing of a top four side in Collingwood.

Are the Hawks back? They’re claiming it and it is encouraging to see that Buddy Franklin has found his goal radar with 9 odd goals in two games.

It really goes to show that for the Hawks to be at their best Buddy needs to be at his optimum.

Geelong soundly defeated the Demons last week and are starting to show that a long season is taking its toll with more than a few Cat players suffering from some niggling injuries and soreness.

It might make them look slightly vulnerable, but Geelong to me are definitely the better team.

Geelong by 22 points

Fremantle v West Coast

The build up to this Western Derby clash  has been weaker than the  derby sponsor’s mid strength beverage.

Forget about the Draught cup, it’s the Draft cup with both coaches at a press conference looking as reluctant and uncomfortable as little boys in a principal office.

Expect to see unusual match ups, half the line up to look like a graduating year in high school, and sudden ‘game plan’ changes as both teams do anything not to win.

It could almost be like a go slow race as both teams try not to tank, but be at their competitive worst.

Fremantle says that Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands, Byron Schammer and Chris Tarrant are suffering injuries and at such a very convenient time of year.

West Coast fans meanwhile won’t see Dean Cox and Daniel Kerr on the field unless they are hosting the half time entertainment.

The injuries might be legitimate but the timing couldn’t be better as both teams would love that extra chance in the draft.

And who could blame them with the Gold Coast practically owning the AFL talent pool for the next few years.

West Coast by 14 points

Brisbane v North Melbourne

In Michael Voss’s rookie year as coach it is looking like a dream debut with Brisbane winning their last two games and now eyeing a top four finish.

Daniel Rich will surely take out the Rising Star rookie award for best first year player with back to back 30 possession games.

This past month of football has seen Jonathan Brown hit 5th gear and it is no surprise as a result, the Lions are real contenders.

North Melbourne are starting to find that dogfighting spirit and it showed last week as they came from 42 points down to hold out for a draw against Richmond.

If only they could find consistency over 4 quarters the result might have been different.

Brisbane are starting to suffer from their injuries as another player Jared Brennan goes down with an ankle and they seem to be running out of Ruck options.

But they still have a great midfield that should over run North.

Brisbane by 36 points

St Kilda v Bulldogs

You could easily think the Saints would struggle after playing a huge game against the Cats, travelling across to the west, facing the in-form Crows.

But something tells me St Kilda won’t even though they should, against the Bulldogs.

Michael Gardiner,Max Hudghton and Justin Koschitzke are under fitness clouds and a few of the players might be worse for wear but the Saints are still an opposing team.

The Western Bulldogs bounced back from their defeat against Collingwood two weeks ago, to dispose of a weary Essendon.

Their loss against Collingwood showed though, that they are not quite in the same league as the Saints and Geelong, but if there was ever a time that the saints were due for a loss it would be now.

The thing that might favour the Bulldogs is that when it comes to goal kicking they share it around. It is not unusual to see the score sheet at the end of the game read of 5-6 different goal kickers.

This might help in the favour to counter the Saints impenetrable defence.

St Kilda still for me, should hold on for a win.

St Kilda by 16 points

Melbourne v Sydney

Both teams are coming off heavy losses and the only difference in this game between winning and losing might be the experience the Swans have in an ageing, tired playing list.

It was promising to see big, young forward Jesse White for the Swans dominate and he might be shaped as a future key forward after originally recruited as a Ruckman.

The game is being played at Manuka Oval which might make it more of an even playing field as Melbourne have played there numerous times before and the large dimensions definitely suit the Demons.

The Swans with the game experience should win.

Sydney by 21 points

Essendon v Richmond

Richmond looked pretty competitive in their draw against North Melbourne last week. Some harsher critics could of seen it as a game that the Tigers should of won, but I was impressed with the tenacity of player like Brett Deledio and Richard Tambling who have both been in solid form this year.

Younger players like Robbie Nahas and  Jack Riewoldt have been exceptionally good and give a lot of Tiger supporters some promise of better things to come.

Essendon meanwhile are starting to tire and sit just inside the eight, but for them these games are the ones they need to win to maintain their aim for a finals campaign.

This could be closer than most people would predict but the Bombers need to win and should.

Essendon by 16 points

Adelaide v Port Adelaide

Adelaide not only lost to St Kilda last week but lost by a big margin against a mentally stronger team. The Saints were coming off a rough few weeks after the Geelong game then travelling west and it really should have been a closer margin.

The Crows until last week had 4 successive wins in a row but when looking at those games it was against Fremantle, Richmond, Sydney and North Melbourne – it reads like a list of who’s who of the bottom 6 teams on the AFL ladder.

Port Adelaide look the worse team when you quickly glance at their last few weeks – a loss to Melbourne and a dull win over West Coast, but there is one exception and that is their win over the Brisbane Lions who are genuine finals contenders.

Port need to win to keep their finals campaign alive and they definitely lift for this grudge match between cross town rivals.

There are so many question marks but if last week was just a hiccup for the Crows, on form Adelaide can’t be discounted.

Adelaide by 20 points

Your Round 17 Tips & Observations

So what are your tips & observations for the 17th round of AFL in 2009? Do you agree with Johnny? if yes or no please post your tips and observations about round 17 in the comments section.

We now include the total correct tips of the Kick2Kick writers & readers, so here they are (updated every week). If your doing better than any of us, let us know and include your own.

1. Geoff: 94
2. Craig: 94
3. Martynkai: 88
4. JohnnyTruent: 86
5. Princess: 86
6. Jermayn: 85

Related K2K Posts

• 2010 Round 17 Power Rankings/Round 18 tips (12)
• 2009 AFL Grand Final Tips (9)
• 2009 AFL Preliminary Finals Tips (8)
• 2009 AFL Semi-Finals Tips (9)
• 2009 AFL Finals Week One Tips (11)