Bulldogs v Geelong
What a cracker of a Friday night game to start off the 21st round of the AFL season.
Both the Bulldogs and Geelong must be tired of the regular season and surely are waiting with anticipation for the finals to begin.
Both are showing vulnerabilities and injuries in and outs definitely hold the key to either team taking the 4 points.
For the Cats, injury clouds over players like Stevie Johnson, Tom Harley and Travis Varcoe make this match look like a tougher task than if Geelong had a full list.
Geelong might include James Kelly, Paul Chapman, Darren Milburn, David Wojcinski and Max Rooke for this week’s big game so ‘player management’ is definitely the catchphrase down at the Cattery.
Meanwhile at the Doghouse, Giansiracusa and Higgins will be handy inclusions for them after their return to form 32 point win against Brisbane last week.
The close 5 point win against the Swans might of taken a lot out of Geelong but if Paul Chapman gets amongst it, it will definitely add that something extra to the Cats forward line.
Geelong by 12 points
Adelaide v West Coast
Adelaide are zeroing in on a top four finish and this week an in-form Eagles team stands between them and the 4 points. Often underrated, Neil Craig’s boys just keep on regularly winning and definitely make it an intimidating prospect for any visiting team playing the Crows in their own backyard.
Last week’s dream crushing victory over the Hawks was a confidence boost Adelaide needed after losses to top 4 teams – Cats and Magpies.
Trent Hentschel had a ridiculously good first game back from knee injury with a 4 goal effort and is just the experience the Crows need in a young forward line.
Meanwhile in the West, the Eagles have been on a roll stringing together 3 wins in a row including a surprise away victory against the top 4 Bulldogs.
Injuries to Chris Masten and Mitch Brown are a deep blow to the boys from the west as both players have had outstanding season and are future stars for the club.
The Crows at home aiming for a realistic top four finish is enough of a certainty for me.
Luke McPharlin plays his 150th AFL game this week for the Dockers
Adelaide by 36 points
Carlton v Melbourne
Melbourne had a 63 point win over the Dockers last week in a game that they could afford to win.
But itwas promising and encouraging to see the Demons put in a solid effort and exciting players like Liam Jurrah give the Dee fans something to hope for in future years.
But to the present day, and this week the Demons face Carlton coming off a resounding 54 point victory over Port Power.
Quite simply the Blues are still in the hunt for a top 4 finish and a percentage boosting win against Melbourne won’t harm their chances.
Carlton by 44 points
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
Brisbane haven’t won a game since round 17 after two losses and a draw, so this is a must win game for the Lions if they want a chance at a home final.
The Lions had a better second half than the opponents the Bulldogs last week, but the key to winning is playing consistently over 4 quarters of football not 2.
The Port Adelaide boys struggle to play consistently week in, week out and an obvious example of this was their performance in a 54 point loss to Carlton.
The inclusion of Daniel Motlop might add some spark to the Power’s attacking options, but up at the GABBA against Vossy’s Lions is a very difficult task.
Brisbane by 24 points
Richmond v Hawthorn
The only thing competitive last week for the Tigers was their scuffle with the Magpies and niggling by the persistent Jake King. There’s nothing wrong with a bit of brouhaha but then you need to back it up on the scorecard.
And sadly for fans of the black and yellow, Richmond got pumped by a whopping 93 points.
Hawthorn suffered a loss but not of that magnitude, with a 27 point defeat against the Crows last week.
The Hawks have got one hell of a premiership hangover with the chances of them making the top eight, slim to none.
Still if you believe in fairy tales and Buddy is Cinderella – the Hawks need to win big and for that to happen, Buddy Franklin can’t miss the ball.
Hawthorn by 45 points
St Kilda v North Melbourne
Well finally the Saints came crashing back to earth, showing us all they are human with a close defeat at the hands of a finals hungry Bombers outfit.
But no need to panic for St Kilda fans yet, as this minor hiccup is just part of their September dress rehearsals.
Meanwhile North Melbourne announced a new coach with the appointment of Brad Scott during the week after a terrible loss to West Coast.
It might just be the tonic to spur the Kangas to put in a much more spirited display on the paddock.
St Kilda by 52 points
Collingwood v Sydney
Sydney are the masters of bogging down a game of football and manipulating an opposing team into playing to their tune.
For successive weeks after close losses, they have showed other teams the blueprint to defeating the invincible like Geelong and St Kilda.
Adam Goodes and Michael O’ Loughlin are in vintage form and if their bodies would let them could definitely play for another season or two.
Combine the experience with the exciting talents of Jesse White and Kieren Jack and the Swans have a good, competitive mix.
Collingwood showed their strength with a 93 point flogging of Richmond last week.
To me the Magpies look a more consistent outfit than the one that took them to two Grand finals against the Lions, and that’s a scary thought.
I’m expecting a close match, with the Magpies having too many game breakers for the Swans to nail down.
Collingwood by 7 points
Fremantle v Essendon
Fremantle were embarrassing last week after their substandard performance against the lowly Demons. After a weekend of shopping in Melbourne the Dockers should put out a much better performance at home against Essendon.
Meanwhile the Bombers are coming off an inspirational 2 point victory over the Saints but it might come at a cost with injuries with Dustin Fletcher looking less than 100% and Paddy Ryder suffering with his knee.
This is anyone’s game as the Bombers not looking strong injury-wise and having lost to West Coast at Subi just a few weeks ago.
A win against the Saints shows Essendon can mix it with the best, but Fremantle at home have been a lot more competitive than Fremantle away.
Fremantle by 18 points
Your Round 21 Tips & Observations
So what are your tips & observations for the 21st round of AFL in 2009? Do you agree with Johnny? if yes or no please post your tips and observations about round 21 in the comments section.
We now include the total correct tips of the Kick2Kick writers & readers, so here they are (updated every week). If your doing better than any of us, let us know and include your own tips and score.
- Geoff: 115
- Craig: 115
- Princess: 110
- JohnnyTruent: 108
- Martynkai: 107
- Jermayn: 103
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August 21st, 2009 at 9:03 am
Hawks have put the que in the rack and aren’t even trying for finals now. Think counted 10 non GF plays from last year in the side and only one of the replacements was of the 3 emergencies for the gf, (i.e. 12 of 25 from GF squad missing).
Watch out 2010, the Hawks have started preparation already.
Big Congrats to Max Bailey. If any kid deserves a break, he is it!
.-= Phillip Molly Malone´s last blog ..AFL Teams – Round 21, 2009 – Nobodies Perfect, Not even a perfect Fool =-.
August 21st, 2009 at 9:15 am
bulldogs (me-ow not impressed)
eagles (can they keep their winning streak up – doubt it but lets tip em just for fun – means hubby will be happy if they get a win)
carlton
port
hawks
st kilda
collingwood
fremantle
August 21st, 2009 at 10:01 am
Geelong: keeping the faith but the Dogs look a 5 goal better side with Higgins and Gia up forward.
Adelaide: Even tho WCE have won something like 14 out of the last 16 games against Adelaide, WCE is a young side and Adelaide should win by at least 20 points.
Hawks: Agree with Phillip that they have put the ‘que in the rack’ but even with 15 GF squad members out, they are a better side than Richmond.
Brisbane: Brisbane to bounce back and Port to disappoint yet again. Wonder if the Williams coach extension was the wrong call, 3-4 weeks later?
Collingwood: Sydney will challenge them and is a smoky but unfortunately the Pies are looking the goods.
Carlton: Fev to kick a bag and this time it will be Melbourne tanking 2 years on.
St Kilda: To bounce back and will be a better side after last weeks loss.
Fremantle: Essendon have beaten top sides in Carlton, St Kilda & Collingwood but lost to lowly sides in North & WCE and will loose to Fremantle as they struggle to get a side together.
August 21st, 2009 at 10:47 am
Geelong
Carlton
Adelaide
Brisbane
Hawthorn (though don’t be surprised if the Tigers sneak a cheeky one: they won this game last year, against a Hawthorn who were a lot better)
St Kilda
Collingwood
Essendon (opportunity for Sandilands to win a game off his own boot though)
.-= Geoff Matheson´s last blog ..Bowden Bowin’ out =-.
August 21st, 2009 at 5:22 pm
Cats
Blues
Crows
Lions
Hawks – Though big whisper they’ve shut up shop.
Saints
Magpies
Bombers
August 21st, 2009 at 6:02 pm
After what was a dismal week for me last week, I hope to be bouncing back with a vengence this week. therefore….
Geelong
Carlton
Adelaide
Brisbane
Hawthorn
St. Kilda
Collingwood
Fremantle
I would like to have gone for the Eagles, but I just dont think they can cut it against Adelaide
August 23rd, 2009 at 2:25 pm
Was there another comment hear before?? I looked yesterday and I was going to reply today and then it went..
.-= Jermayn´s last blog ..AFL Quiz 4 =-.
August 24th, 2009 at 10:49 am
Ok results time, we will go into the finals, so do not stop your tipping until the Grand Final. Maybe next year we will get a prize going
1. Geoff: 120 (5)
2. Craig: 120 (5)
3. Princess: 115 (5)
4. JohnnyTruent: 114 (6)
5. Martynkai: 113 (6)
6. Jermayn: 109 (6)
Johnny, Marty & myself got 6 right this weekend, with us tipping Fremantle.
August 24th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
yeah that was mine, not sure what happened to it…
August 23rd, 2009 at 3:27 pm
you guys should have re-read my article on the game these two played earlier in the year…we had this game won as soon as Brad Johnson’s shot sailed wide.
Also just wondering if anyone can write an article on how the Dogs forward line functioned so wonderfully under the most intense of pressure…that’ll be the day!! we may not have a power forward but we have what 15 other teams don’t. Aker, Johnno, Murphy, Higgins, Hill, Hahn, Welsh are all as good in the air as they are on the ground and that makes us very, very dangerous and is the reason why we are(still) the highest scoring team in the league. Considering guys like Ward, Reid, Picken, Addison, Higgins, Hill, Harbrow(who were all super under intense pressure) have all played under 50 games this group will continue to improve and i think it’s about time we got some respect for being a consistently good side for the last 45 games. bring on the saints!!!
August 25th, 2009 at 9:17 am
In response to Deano’s missing comment:
We always seem to have this argument about the Doggies forward line and yes Aker, Johno, Murphy, Gia, Welsh, Higgins etc etc look good during the regular season but finals is a different game. They failed last year to kick a winning score and if they fail again this year, I think my point will be proven. However if they do not fail, your point is proven…
Until then I stick to my argument/ point that to win a premiership, you need a key position forward player
August 24th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Ok I found the missing comment thanks Deano for letting me know. Above is the missing comment…
August 25th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
i don’t think we will win the premiership this year but it won’t be through a lack of a key forward, the game has changed man, geelong had two gorillas on the weekend and still couldn’t get the job done. i have no doubt we have the skill it is whether we are ready mentally, not quite there imho but i hope they prove me wrong!!!
August 26th, 2009 at 9:44 am
@Deano – Yes Geelong had two Gorillas up forward (who played their best games together ironically) but as you say, you need more than just that as for example; Brisbane have failed to make the finals in the last few years with Bradshaw & Brown.
Key forwards to me are like the icing on the team that can make you from an average or good team to a better team.
.-= Jermayn´s last blog ..Buddy Should be Suspended =-.
August 26th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
ok, the thing is i think the dogs will lose a final this year and my ‘argument’ will be seen as wrong and yours as right, the dogs are a highly skilled unit but are not yet battle-hardened(getting their quickly) and will in all likelyhood buckle under pressure at some stage. a key forward may or may not change this but it is my opinion that football in general is moving further and further away from needing a ‘power forward’ in order to succeed.
in 1994 14 guys topped 50 goals for the season, names such as Modra, Lockett, Dunstall, Ablett, Grant, Lyon, Longmire, Kernahan, Richardson and Rocca all lead their respective teams goalscoring and it was widely expected that you needed not only one but two or three quality big men in the forward line. A look at the leading goalscorers this season shows only 8 guys over 50goals but the interesting thing is guys like LeCras, Akermanis, Morton, Porplyzia and S.Johnson leading their respective teams goalkicking. needless to say things have changed in 15 years and imho will continue to do so. Barring Buddy and Roughie there has been a distinct lack of quality power forwards in the last 5 years and the trend looks like continuing. in five years time when brown, bradshaw, fev, riewoldt etc are gone i think you will see a lot more teams doing what the dogs are doing now and with great success.