Welcome to one of our new regular writers for season 2010 Ashley Deppeler, who we will all know as Depps, you can find out more about him on his bio page and at the bottom of every one of his posts. Depps will be helping out with the Bet tips and with the weekly tips.
Ask anyone about betting on the NAB cup and you get the same verdict “It’s a game of bingo anyone can win it.” While this is true there is no reason why you can’t make a profit with such an open playing field, indeed this makes it more appealing if you’re prepared to do some basic homework.
While upsets are probable given each team takes a different approach to the competition and like to experiment, any of the weaker eight teams who may have a surprise win will run into at least one and in most cases two 2009 AFL season finalists before the NAB grand final. It is for this reason these teams can be taken out of considerations as two or three upset wins are highly improbable.
So we are left with 8 teams who can win, however I am going to drop Essendon from contention as they have a draw full of bogey sides such as West Coast and Adelaide and instead bump Hawthorn up into contention as they cannot be discounted simply because they missed out on the finals last year.
So, like a game of bingo my 8 teams that can be stamped to win the NAB Cup are as follows: Geelong, St. Kilda, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Carlton and Collingwood.
I use several different sites to bet with and with such a lottery the odds fluctuate from site to site, something that benefits those who are prepared to look. These are the odds for my 8 teams as of this afternoon for the NAB Cup from Centrebet.com and the Victorian TAB.
| Team | CentreBet.com Prices | Victorian TAB Prices |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong: | $5.00 | $5.50 |
| St Kilda | $5.00 | $7.50 |
| Adelaide | $7.00 | $8.00 |
| Bulldogs | $7.00 | $10.00 |
| Hawthorn | $11.00 | $7.50 |
| Brisbane | $13.00 | $11.00 |
| Carlton | $14.00 | $21.00 |
| Collingwood | $15.00 | $8.50 |
As you can see there is some variations on the prices, especially Collingwood, Carlton and Hawthorn. This works in our favour because while it is impossible to back all 8 teams and make a profit on one betting agency alone it is possible to do so by utilising the odds on both agencies. Here are the best odds on the 8 teams with the Centrebet odds in italic and TAB odds left normal:
- Geelong $5.50
- St. Kilda $7.50
- Adelaide $8.00
- Bulldogs $10.00
- Hawthorn $11.00
- Brisbane $13.00
- Collingwood $15.00
- Carlton $21.00
It is now a case of number crunching numbers until you get to an outcome you are satisfied with. As its such an open contest I have chosen to spread my bets so that each team yeilds a profit though it can easily be tweaked depending on your thoughts and allegiances, and with my budget of $200 I have come up with the following:
| Team | Odds | Amount Wagered | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong | $5.50 | $42.00 | $33.00 |
| St Kilda | $7.50 | $33.00 | $49.50 |
| Adelaide | $8.00 | $32.00 | $58.00 |
| Bulldogs | $10.00 | $24.00 | $42.00 |
| Hawthorn | $11.00 | $22.00 | $44.00 |
| Brisbane | $13.00 | $18.00 | $36.00 |
| Collingwood | $15.00 | $16.00 | $42.00 |
| Carlton | $21.00 | $11.00 | $33.00 |
| $198.00 |
As you can see I stand to make a return on investment of 16-24% simply by utilising the varying odds and spreading my bets across the 8 teams most likely to win the NAB Cup. While not watertight this is still an effective strategy, though I could yet lose the lot, after all it is a game of bingo. Happy punting.
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February 10th, 2010 at 10:34 am
Aren’t you the same guy who put $100 on Australia to make 300+ on Sunday night?
Just kidding mate, solid first up effort.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:11 am
Geelong is an obvious choice but I Think St Kilda and Bulldogs are another two teams that are looking for silverware, so if I was a betting man I would focus on those three.
Another two teams that will mainly be focusing on the major competition but could get up there is Collingwood and Adelaide.
February 10th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
Nice work mate.
Hawks odds are pretty tasty but learning towards having a punt on the Bullies. Think they will come out snarling this year and big Barry will have something to prove in the NAB cup.
Look forward to your tips this year, bring on the footy!