Johnnytruent is having a week off so lets see if I am a better tipster expert than him and if I can predict why and who will win in the first week of the finals. A lot of the time, finals can be a lop sided contest, I really hope it wont be the case for 2010 and imo even with two extra teams, it should stay a top 8 and not a top 9 or 10.

Sam Fisher got over his injury cloud like a few other big names in Griffen, Johnson, Didak, Hodge & Mumford to see up a good first weekend of finals.

Friday night Qualifying Final: Geelong v St Kilda

I am sure coach Thompson was happy West Coast managed to make them work for their win. It was a satisfactory game with Ablett having an amazing 3rd quarter, they rested some key players and several kids like Hogan, Hunt etc got another game in them.

St Kilda put their cue in the rack at 3/4 time, while they lost it did not effect their ladder position and they could not afford another injury like they did to Sam Fisher.

Geelongs Changes:
IN: Selwood, Enright, Josh Hunt
OUT: Menzel, Taylor Hunt, Hogan

St Kilda’s Changes:
IN: Milne, Schneider, Baker
OUT: Dempster, Armitage, Miles

Who Will Win between Geelong & St Kilda

Last time they meet, St Kilda held Geelong goalless in a half to run out winners in a typical dire low scoring St Kilda game. To me the loss saw Thompson play Ablett more forward than resting him on the bench, the result has seen him kick 20 goals in the last 6 games.

I love watching the battle between Taylor and Riewoldt, Taylor has won the last few battles but if Riewoldt fires it will see his team likely winning. The other keys to the Saints having a big win imo is Milne and Kosi, they are maligned and criticized for their inability to fire in big final matches.

To me Geelong is in form with Selwood, Chapman, Milburn, Taylor and Hawkins all in form and that should see…

Geelong by 21 points

Saturday Elimination Final: Fremantle v Hawthorn

Fremantle last week had a hard fought last quarter against fellow finalists Carlton. Hill, Sandilands, Mundy and Pavlich were the keys which allowed reborn-ed Johnson to float forward and kick multiple goals.

Hawthorn won by straight kicking which is not something you normally associate with them but an outstanding last quarter inspired by Buddy saw them overcome a two goal deficit to upset the highly fancied Magpies.

Fremantle’s Changes:
IN: Crowley, Silvagni, Chrichton
OUT: Hasleby, Ballantyne (foot), Jay van Berlo

Hawthorns Changes:
IN: Hodge
OUT: Hooper (soreness)

Who Will Win between Fremantle & Hawthorn

Last time they meet, Freo rested 8 of their best 22 and the result saw Freo only managing to kick one goal for 3.5 quarters. However Freo will have Sandilands, Pavlich, Hill and Mundy back who are their keys.

Some key matchups I would love to see during the game are Hill and Rioli playing on each other as well as Hodge and Pavlich. Sandilands will most likely dominate the Hawks weak ruck line up but the question will be can Franklin and Roughead dominate McPharlin and Grover? For Freo to win, they need to keep them to under 8 goals between them and the mid sized forwards of Mayne and Johnson to kick 2-3 each.

While the Hawks will be favourites for most, due to the home ground factor I am going for…

Fremantle by 15 points

Saturday night Qualifying Final: Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

Collingwood lost through almost comical goal kicking, did I hear someone say Colli-wobbles? In the last two weeks they struggled disposing Adelaide and then loosing with a last quarter fade out. In the last two games their combined score is 19.35.

The Dogs are also in some indifferent form with injury playing a major part of their late season form slump with Ryan Griffin (knee) and Brad Johnson (Achilles), Brian Lake (hip) struggling and Adam Cooney (hamstring) and Dale Morris (back) have been ruled out for the entire finals series. Their depth is also tested with fringe players Sam Reid (shoulder), Jordan Roughead (shoulder) and Easton Wood (hamstring) also struggling.

Collingwood’s Changes:
IN: Johnson, Brown, Didak
OUT: Fraser, Goldsack, McCarthy

Western Bulldogs Changes:
IN: Minson, Higgins, Wood, Johnson
OUT: Moles, Everitt, Roughead (shoulder), Jones

Who Will Win between Collingwood & Western Bulldogs

The Dogs have two things in their favour. One is that Collingwood have not defeated a Victorian side in finals  in 20 years and two the famous Colli-wobbles…

Apart from that I cannot see the Dogs getting close as Collingwood look settled and the Dogs are only making up the numbers for 2010.

Hannebery is a handy inclusion for the Swans

Collingwood by 35 points

Sunday Elimination Final: Sydney v Carlton

Sydney had a workman win over an injured and disappointing Brisbane with Pyke playing his best game and Kieran Jack continuing his great end to the season.

Carlton had a stellar final quarter but feel just short after giving Fremantle too much of a head start.

Sydneys Changes:
IN: Kennelly, O’Dwyer, Mumford, Hannebery
OUT: Meredith (Hip)

Carlton’s Changes:
IN: Hadley, Walker, Anderson, Browne, Jacobs
OUT: Grigg (calf), Hampson

Who Will Win between Sydney & Carlton

In looking at pure stats, its hard to look beyond Sydney with only two of Carltons 11 home and away wins were against top-eight rivals and Sydney have  13 wins from their past 14 games against the Blues. Plus add to the fact that Carlton are to travel twice in a row which is like a first for any non-Victorian team.

The one weakness for Sydney is their forward line with Bradshaw and McGlynn out injured and Goodes and O’Keefe having indifferent years, this leaves Jetta, Dennis-Lane, Kirk and White needing to kick the majority of Sydneys goals. If they cannot do that, they may struggle but Carlton are 8th for a reason…

Sydney by 18 points

Your Finals Tips

What do you think? Think I am onto something or can you smell an upset in the first week of the finals? If so let us know what you think and any other interesting notes you want to discuss…