Collingwood v Geelong

Saturday MCG,
Last time: Geelong 22.17 (149) d Collingwood 8.5 (53), round 24, 2011 at the MCG

Collingwood Ins: Alex Fasolo  Outs: Dayne Beams (groin)
Geelong Ins: No change Outs: No change

Collingwood just managed to scrape by Hawthorn last week by 3 points in a basically a match where they were outplayed for most of the game but put together a ‘champion’s’ quarter in the last, to hold out the Hawks.The other final taking place was at polar opposites with Geelong annihilating West Coast by 48 points and giving the young boys from the west a good football lesson.

Master and Apprentice. Can the Pies in Mickey's last hurrah cap off Swan's Brownlow win and go back to back premiers?

Grand Finals are always a much anticipated affair but this one holds especially true with so many factors and interesting bylines. Collingwood are looking to successfully defend their premiership from last year, something they haven’t been able to do since way back in 1936. It will probably be Micky Malthouse‘s last game as coach as Collingwood and in his debut season of coaching, Chris Scott‘s first Grand Final campaign for the Cats.

These two teams have been the best in the AFL in recent years and this is evident by these two being the last two premiers ( Magpies in ’10 and Cats in ’09). Geelong have been one of the best teams this decade with only Brisbane of the early 2000s still a slither ahead in terms of greatness. They might not get the hat-trick of premierships of the Lions/Bears but if Geelong can win come Saturday they will certainly make a case for best team of the last 10 years.

Dane Swan for Collingwood also took out the ‘Charlie’ for Fairest and Best this year. An interesting fact that many also dig up come Grand Final Weekout of the past 20 years, 5 times the Brownlow Medal winner has come from losing Grand Final side of that same year. On the flipside it has also occurred 5 times, that the Brownlow medallist has gone on to win a premiership medallion that same year. So as far as facts go it is even stevens.

This year Geelong have had the knockers on Collingwood, winning both matches this year, a reversal of 2010 where Collingwood won their two encounters and then went on to claim the premiership.

Unlucky for Collingwood’s Dayne Beams (groin) who will miss this year’s GF but in comes a worthy replacement in Alex Fasolo who has been a revelation this season for the Pies. Geelong are not giving anything away but have a list of emergencies ( Shannon Byrnes, Darren Milburn, Cameron Guthrie ) that could easily slot into their 18 if needed.

It is hard to split the difference between these two teams and although Geelong have the better record this season against the Pies, Round 24′s 96 point thrashing by the Cats almost does not come into the equation.

Battle of the Midfields

Looking at both teams on paper it is amazing the depth the Cats and Pies have at hand. Geelong have a midfield machine with 6 players averaging more than 20+ possessions a game. ( Selwood, Corey, Kelly, Chapman, Ling and Bartel ) and with Mitch Duncan, Andrew Mackie in support the Cats can certainly get the job done.

Collingwood have ball magnet Dane Swan who seemingly gets to run free every match by the opposition, Scott Pendlebury, Daisy Thomas and Luke Ball are all averaging 20+ possessions per game. Heath Shaw plays like an extra midfielder coming off the half back line and Jarryd Blair does a fine impression of Mighty Mouse.

Gamebreaking Forwards

Travis Cloke has come of age, with such a consistent year he really showed why he is All Australian material with his big mitts and long boot making crucial appearances in last week’s cliffhanger sudden death final against the Hawks. Alan Didak is always a danger up forward and still can pinch hit when needed.

For Geelong James Podsiadly, Travis Varcoe and Stevie Johnson ( if fully fit ) are a triple threat of that X Factor when they are hot they are red hot. J Pod has finally been able to kick a few bags outside the realm of Kardy Park and both Varcoe and Stevie J can be ridiculously good or just plain ridiculous.

Defence Defence Defence

With all the attacking options of Geelong we forget just how good their defence is with the Cats ranked 2nd in opponents scoring the least amount of points against them. The number 1 ranked team with that same stat is of course, Collingwood. So obviously trying to find differences is as easy as splitting hairs…To me Collingwood are very adept at spreading their defensive options with O’Brien, Shaw and Maxwell counter-attacking and rebounding. Geelong have some very fine key position players in Scarlett and Taylor and usually have their midfield dropping back to pitch in.

Who will win?

Both teams have great ruckmen in Darren Jolly (Collingwood) and Brad Ottens (Geelong) and are so even in every facet it is uncanny. I still feel like Geelong show a lot of hunger and look a better team even without a superstar like the Great Garry Ablett jnr. High on emotion Collingwood have every reason to win and are not minor premiers for nothing. It won’t be another drawn Grand Final, but my heart will skip a beat and Geelong will just get there.

Geelong by 1 point

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