Single bets as follows:

Melbourne to defeat Brisbane @ 2.05

Hawthorn to defeat Port Adelaide @ 1.33

The reasoning:

After the 73 point drubbing Melbourne handed out to an understrength Sydney the Dees head north to take on Brisbane at the GABBA. The Lions den was a fortress early in the season but they spectacularly collapsed on the back of injuries to skipper Jonathan Brown, Josh Drummond, Jarrod Brennan and  Brandon Fevola. Despite the return of three of these key players the Lions look to have given up on season 2010 and will instead be looking to improve in 2011.

Champion player Luke Hodge provides a much needed link in the Hawks defence

The Demons on the other hand are still an outside chance to make the finals for the first time since 2006. With plenty of youth in the side the demons should have the legs to run the Lions off their feet and move the ball quickly. Stalwarts  Colin Sylvia, Brad Green and Cameron Bruce are all in excellent form and with the younger generation including James Frawley, Jordie McKenzie and Cale Morton all playing accountable footy I think the Demons might sneak home by 2 or 3 goals.

After last weeks draw the Hawks will be looking for another win to add to their solid track record over the last two months. With the teams leaders in Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell and Brad Sewell contributing and recruit Shaun Burgoyne seamlessly slipping into the midfield the Hawks look to be decent premiership contenders come September. If Lance Franklin can play disciplined footy and do what he does best by kicking a bag the Hawks can take alot out of this game and provided added incentive to have a crack at the top 4.
Port Adelaide played well last week in the SA showdown but have lost 4 out of their last 5 games and have a 3-5 record playing at home this season. Domenic Cassisi, Kane Cornes, Troy Chaplin and Travis Boak all got plenty of the ball last week but I can’t see them playing as well as they did in the showdown. The retirement of hard man Josh Carr is also an advantage for the Hawks who tend to play a tough game of football. The Hawks should win here by 4 or more goals and should do so comfortably, stitching the game up by half time.

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Single bet as follows:

Geelong to defeat Adelaide @ 1.30

The reasoning:

Brett Burton returns for the last few games before retirement at seasons end

Not much value about this week, Geelong at $1.30 looks to be the only thing worth a sniff. The Cats have won their last 3 at AAMI stadium and the last two were won by an average of 58 points. They have also won the last 5 on the trot against the Crows, their last loss coming in Round 13, 2006.

Asides from Tom Hawkins, Steve Johnson and Darren Milburn the Cats have an almost full strength outfit while the Crows welcome back big names Andrew McLeod, Brett Burton and Nathan Bock.  Despite Gary Ablett being quiet by his lofty standards in the last couple of weeks the Cats have gelled together as a team to account for this, showing they have alot more depth if a big name or two fails to fire.

I can’t see the Cats losing this one, it would take an off night and Adelaide’s best performance of the season to knock them off and with such a scarce round for betting the $1.30 on offer looks to be a lock for punters.

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Single bet as follows:

West Coast to defeat Adelaide @ 2.77

Essendon to defeat Melbourne @ 1.94

Hawthorn at the line (19.5 points) @ 1.91

The reasoning:

West Coast at home can never be discounted and what better time to win than against Adelaide. Both teams have long

Luke Hodge has been an intrumental part in the 2010 Hawks reseurgence

injury lists and with coach John Worsfold under the pump from the West Australian media he will expect his side to bring home the 4 points. Adelaide Are two games outside the 8 and have despite some solid performances I can’t see much inspiration for them to win this game.

After last weeks abhorrent performance the Bombers will be under no illusion from coach Matthew Knights, no one is immune from being dropped and everybody is playing for their spot in the team, as Mark Williams will testify. The Bombers need a win here to have any real hope of making the finals and with the Demons slowing down of late, the Bombers should have a comfortable win here.

For their last several games the Hawks have resembled the premiership winning side of 2008, their endeavor at the ball, leadership and forward line structure have all seemed click once again. While the Cats have set the benchmark for the last 3 seasons it’s hard to maintain the enthusiasm and momentum on a regular basis. While I think the Hawks are a real chance to win this game the line at 19.5 points should be enough to get them over the line.

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Top up Balance: $200

Win/Loss last week: -$266.24

Current Balance: $200.00

Odds taken from www.centrebet.com

Single bet as follows:

$70 on Essendon to win @ 2.43

$70 on Carlton to win @ 1.65

$60 on Brisbane to win @ 1.40

Apologies for the short entry I have been flat out with work this week and haven’t had time to prepare a writeup. Essendon have the wood over Hawthorn in the last two line in the sand encounters, Fremantle played like the Freo of old last week and Brisbane at home should account for the Tigers, if it was at the ‘G the Tigers would be in with a sniff. As mentioned in the figures above the draw between Collingwood and Melbourne has killed my account balance and it has been revived with another $200 to keep things ticking along.

Michael Hurley will need to continue his good form if the Bombers are going to win tonight.

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Win/Loss last week: $163.84

Current Balance: $266.24

Odds taken from www.centrebet.com

Single bet as follows:

* Collingwood to defeat Melbourne $266.24 @ 1.16

After a bumper weekend I am (finally) back in the black and with alot of potential upset games this week the only safe bet looks to be Collingwood to defeat Melbourne. Last time these two teams met Melbourne almost pinched the

Scott Pendlebury performed well against Melbourne last time they met

upset win of the season and it is for this reason that Collingwood will not underestimate the Dees this time, they will come out like they would against Geelong or Carlton.

While Collingwood are relatively injury free the Dees are not faring so well with James Frawley, Nathan Jones, James McDonald and Colin Sylvia all questionable to play in the Queen’s Birthday clash on Monday. After last weeks late scare against the Bulldogs the Pies will be looking to stamp some dominance on the competition and what better chance to do so before earning a week long break.

Last time these two teams met it was Collingwood’s young midfield who racked up the possessions with  Sharrod Wellingham (24), Scott Pendlebury (23) and Steele Sidebottom (21) all playing a major part in the win, despite Melbourne’s Mark Jamar dominating in the ruck.   Expect Collingwood to win by 4-5 goals.

Also for those having a bet on the Football World Cup Robin Van Persie is an a lock in to score most goals for the Netherlands @ $2.20 and that’s not just because I’m an Arsenal fan.

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Win/Loss last week: -$78.80

Current Balance: $102.40

Odds taken from www.centrebet.com

Muli bet as follows:

• Essendon with a 21.5 point start @ 1.45
• St Kilda with a -13.5 point start @ 1.27
• Geelong with a -12.5 point start @ 1.22
• Collingwood with a 31.5 point start @ 1.16

$102.40 on a total of 4 legs @ $2.60

After Collingwood’s capitulation last week against the Lions my balance is again looking a little flat, despite Sydney saluting with a 19.5 point start. This week I am throwing caution to the wind to hopefully boost my bankroll again and get back in the black.

The justification of my bet

The Bombers showed what they are capable of last week with a stirring win over the Bulldogs and now face off against Sydney at the SCG. The Bombers always seem to play well against the Swans and despite missing lanky defender Dustin Fletcher through suspension I feel the Bombers will come up trumps or at the very least die trying. Injury to two key Swans in Daniel Bradshaw and Tadhg Kennelly will also inhibit the Swans chances of stealing a much needed win.

St Kilda's Mr versitile Brendon Goddard should have a belter against the Tigers this weekend

Despite a moral boosting win in the wet last week Richmond will not be good enough to topple a dangerous St Kilda outfit. The Saints have shown that, despite popular belief,  Nick Riewoldt is not the be all and end all of the Saints game plan and they have adapted well without their spearhead forward. Expect Brendon Goddard to get plenty of the ball and the Saints to win comfortably.

Geelong make the trip west to take on West Coast at Subiaco and should get the 4 points in a high scoring and entertaining game. The Cats have had a good run with injuries of late with defender Matthew Scarlett’s hamstring the only recent concern at the club. Jordan Jones broke his fibula in last weeks game and will miss the next few rounds for the Eagles. It would be good to see the Eagles keep pace with Geelong for a bit but ultimately you know the Cats are going to come out on top.

In what looks to be the match of the round Collingwood take on the Western Bulldogs who will be looking to make amends for their poor performance last week. With loudmouth Jason Akermanis missing from the Bulldogs they can finally concentrate on doing what they do best, playing entertaining footy. I think Collingwood will bring home the 4 points but just to be on the safe side there is no chance of them going down by more than 6 goals.

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Win/Loss last week: -$62.00

Current Balance: $181.20

Odds taken from www.centrebet.com

Singular bet as follows:

• Collingwood with a -8.5 point start Brisbane $130 @ 1.46
• Sydney with a 19.5+ start against Hawthorn $51.20 @ 2.00

The justification of my bet

Simon Prestigiacomo should keep an understrength Jonathan Brown quiet this week

Collingwood take on Brisbane at the Gabba and a solid win here will keep them in check with the top 2. With the Pies midfield ticking along nicely and the return of veteran Simon Prestigiacomo to the lineup Collingwood look to have all the Aces to shut down the Lions.

Speculation abounds whether Lions skipper Jonathan Brown and spearhead forward Brendon Fevola are match fit and despite coach Michael Voss stating otherwise, recent form suggests these two will be looking forward to the split round in a couple of weeks time. Until these two are fit and firing  a top 4 team will never feel threatened by the Lions.

After last week’s stirring win Hawthorn look to be back on track for season 2010, albeit 5 weeks too late while the Swans are suffering a couple of big name injuries to key forward Daniel Bradshaw and Kerry’s favourite son Tadhg Kennelly. Despite this the Swans will be hunting a win to stay in the top 8 and make things just that bit easier when crunch time comes in the latter part of the season. With Sam Mitchell and Luke Hodge both firing the Hawks have found an extra couple of cylinders in the last week and should win in a closely contested battle but the Swans should cover a 19.5 point start with a goal to spare.

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Win/Loss last week: $100.60

Current Balance: $243.20

Odds taken from www.centrebet.com

Singular bet as follows:

• Geelong to defeat Collingwood $70 @ 1.76
• Bulldogs with a -10.5 point start against North Melbourne $40 @ 1.45
• Brisbane to defeat Adelaide $40 @ 1.66
• Carlton to defeat Hawthorn $90 @ 1.36
• Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Carlton multi $3.2 @ 4.92

The justification of my bet

The biggest game of the year so far is also the best value in odds if you get it right, there is no other time this season both teams will be at such long odds. Expect some exciting match ups in the midfield and with the likes of Scott Pendelbery, Dane Swan, Gary Ablett, and Joel Selwood roaming around. With both teams firing I think the Cats are a better team than the Pies on paper and they should win by 2 or 3 goals.

Daniel Cross is one of the most underrated players in the AFL

The Western Bulldogs come up against in North Melbourne and a win here would keep the Doggies in top 4 contention. With Barry Hall finally looking to have settled into his role and stalwarts Daniel Cross, Adam Cooney and Brian Lake all in excellent form North will struggle to get points on the board.

With all the talk of injury and suspected injury in the Brisbane camp the Lions are starting at much longer odds than they would of a couple of weeks ago against the Crows. Depending who you listen to both Jonathan Brown and Brendon Fevola will be far from fit if they line up though the advantage of having two star forwards is both could have half strength games and the Lions will still get over the line. Though I expect the Crows to rally at home the Lions should come out on top of the scrap.

The Hawks can’t take a trick and after scraping a default win last week against the Tigers the season looks to be on very shaky ground. On the contrary the Blues are flying with young guns Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer, Mark Murphy and Chis Yarren now providing the backbone of this well molded team.  A win here all but cements the Blues a finals spot and I can’t see the Hawks rallying to cause an upset, the Blues should win comfortably.

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Win/Loss last week: $41.08

Current Balance: $142.60

Odds taken from www.centrebet.com

Apologies for the lack of justification this week, I have been flat out working and haven’t had a chance to compile anything.

Nic Naitanui spearheads the vast selection of youth on both teams

Singular bet as follows:

• Fremantle to defeat Collingwood $30 @ 2.01
• Carlton to defeat Port Adelaide $50 @ 1.96
• West Coast to defeat Melbourne $30 @ 3.23
• Western Bulldogs to defeat Sydney $30 @ 1.61
• Fremantle, Carlton, West Coast, Western Bulldogs multi $2.6 @ 20.48

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Win/Loss last week: $29.52

Current Balance: $101.52

Odds taken from www.centrebet.com

Singular bet as follows:

* Bulldogs to defeat Melbourne $25 @ 1.25

* Collingwood to defeat North Melbourne $25 @ 1.20

* Geelong to defeat Sydney $25 @ 1.26

* Bulldogs, Collingwood, Geelong multi $26.52 @ 1.88

The justification of my bet

Dane Swan is in excellent form, racking up 31 touches last week.

The Demons are going better than expected however they are not going well enough to beat the Bulldogs.

The usualsuspects in Lindsay Gilbee, Daniel Cross and Daniel Giansiracusa are all firing and should get the Bulldogs comfortably over the line.

After a solid win last week Collingwood have stamped their authority on the competition and will be looking to smash the Roos this week. Ex Saint Luke Ball was on fire last week, as was Dane Swan, Scott Pendleberry and youngster Sharrod Wellingham.

Over at Skilled Stadium Geelong take on the Swans in what should be a one sided affair after half time. The Cats flogged Richmond last week and look to be finally tuned and raring to go after a few hiccups earlier in the season. With the likes of Paul Chapman, Joel Selwood and Cameron Mooney the Mark Seaby-less Swans will find the venture down south too tough on this occasion.

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