In the next few weeks until the start of the 2010 season on 25th March 2010 we will review in depth every 16 clubs. We started off last week with Fremantle, then the Bulldogs, the Kangaroos and Collingwood. This week we have looked at Richmond, Sydney Swans, yesterday the West Coast Eagles and today the Essendon Bombers.
After Kick2Kick reviews each club, we will give their full season 2010 predictions like we did last year. If you would like to review a team or something else, please contact us.
David Hille returns from an ACL but where does he now play with Ryder staring in the ruck last year
What Happened Last Year
The 2009 season was a breakthrough year for Matthew Knights young list & hopefully it silenced some the critics. The Bombers finished in the finals with 10 ½ wins from 22 games, unheard of in the 16 team format. What’s more significant is that they played 11 of a possible 14 games against the other top 8 teams.
The New Season
In 2010, that number rises to 12 in what can only be described as the “superleague” draw.
As a result, I give them the Bombers a 46.1% chance of winning all their games. The breakdown of the 22 games for this season is as follows:
- 5 games @ a 75% chance
- 10 games @ a 50% chance
- 7 games @ a 50% chance
Another problem for this season is the loss of Matthew Lloyd, Scott Lucas & Adam McPhee. Can the Bombers replace these three players quickly?? The answer could lie partly in the slowing of Lloyd & the form of Lucas in 2009, both of which didn’t excite me very much. Last season saw an emergence of the new style of the Bombers without the reliance of the power forward.
Likely Finish: 8th to 12th (depending how Eagles improve, how far the Blues fall & how much the Hawks whine about injuries again).
Players to Watch
Heath Hocking – We can mention the likes of Stanton, Watson & Winderlich, but players like Hocking need to step it up. Averaging 18.2 disposals, Hocking now slips our best 10 players with the retirements & departures. Hocking is the Bombers No 3 in handballs & No 6 in tackles. Given a full season, I believe Hocking can become one of our great midfield defending type Generals over time.
Patrick Ryder – As we all know, Ryder came into his own on Anzac Day eventually forcing Collingwood to look at its own ruck stocks. Name me another ruckman in the AFL that can have 424 hitouts & be the No 1 tackler for the team??
Sam Lonergan – Another who needs a full season after averaging 14.5 disposals per game in 2009. Lonergan is good enough around the packs to be in the top 5 midfield for the Bombers with defensive pressure now looking to be slowly implemented into the game plan.
Courtney Dempsey – Dempsey can amaze you in the way this youngster takes on the biggest & the best forwards after basically being thrown into the deep end. Indigenous players are mainly known for their speed & “magic”, but Dempsey has provided us with something different not seen in this type of footballer since I can remember.
Brent Prismall – Prismall came back to play 13 games in 2009 after that knee operation & may have taken a while to find his feet in his new club. Could he be the midfielder that flies under the radar for the Bombers in 2010 now that he has no excuse albeit that his knee holds out?? Or, did the Cats see something in him that we didn’t in terms of trading him? The answer now lies in Prismall’s hands.
Bench Warmers
Jarryd Atkinson / Leroy Jetta – Fast getting impatient with this on the field / out injured indigenous tandem that was a brain child of the old drafting failures of the previous coaching regime. The sooner Knights is rid of these experimental type disasters, the better.
Darcy Daniher – Someone must believe in not insulting former greats of the club for that’s the only reason I believe Daniher is on the list.
Tom Bellchambers – David Hille is back for now & Ryder is our No 1 choice. Probably only kept in case of Hille breaking down or failing, but Jason Laycock has been hot in pre-season.
Need to Improve
Mark McVeigh - Found himself in being suspended by the club after Matthew Knights would’ve liked him to stand up for the youngsters as a senior example.
Bashar Houli – Came to Essendon and fame arguably more for his background than his talent alone & Knights has seen through this. Needs to prove he can play for the team & not for the publicity.
Your Thoughts
Will Essendon play finals this year or will the hard fixtures of playing 12 times against last years top 8 teams added onto the fact that Lloyd and Lucas are missing will mean another lean year for the Dons? How will Jobe Watson handle being the captain? Where will Hille & Ryder play? Lots of questions but do you have the answers?
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March 12th, 2010 at 8:12 am
It’s a tough draw, but I’m still hopeful we could make a step or two forward and once again play finals in 2010. 10.5 wins last year with only Paddy Ryder to ruck for almost every minute of every game after round 4, just adding Hille to the team sheet will make a massive difference to the ability of the Dons to remain competitive for longer periods of time.
Also, keep a bigger eye on WInderlich. He was explosive for a good deal of 2009, but did so off the back of practically zero pre-season due to a back injury. 2010 and he has a full pre-season behind him, he could be a big improver – and that’s saying something.
Danny´s last blog ..uncyherb: @fulltimecasual Congrats Uncle Pete.
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March 12th, 2010 at 10:04 am
Nah sorry Danny (finally got your comments cleared – whew) I just cannot see the Bombers back into the 8. Yes I agree your ruck will be more dynamic with Hille back etc but the question remains….
Who will kick your goals?
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March 12th, 2010 at 10:26 am
Lloyd kicked 35 goals in 09, Lucas just 22.
Hille will obviously be rested forward a fair bit given he’s coming back from a knee reco, so I think he’s good for 30+ over the journey, and 30 goals is probably a reasonable expectation from Mark Williams. So I think the loss of Lloyd and Lucas is covered. If we were talking about 99-01 Lloyd/Lucas – that would have been impossible to cover… but that’s not what the Bombers have to meet or exceed.
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March 12th, 2010 at 10:40 am
Personally if your relying on Hille and Williams, you can kiss the finals good bye. If you want to be successful you need to be praying that Gumbleton and Neagle have good years. I watched the Eagles v Bombers game and at times the midget forward line looked good dangerous but when under pressure and tired, your forward line looks thin.
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March 13th, 2010 at 11:15 am
@ Jermayn: Your last statement is nonsense! The Bombers were without a number of key players, most particularly Hille. Bellchambers, who Craig has written off as a benchwarmer (very premature) performed creditably against Naitanui, but Hille’s bigger body would have made a difference. With better midfield supply, perhaps the Bombers could have put the game to bed by half time… I’d be more concerned about how easily the Bombers cut through the WCE defence in that first half.
@ Craig: Bellchambers has a good three or more years of development, and I predict he’ll be a beauty. By that time, Hille will have past his use-by date, as may Laycock (assuming he can get fit and stay that way). Bellchambers is insurance, as is Bock.
aussierulesblog´s last blog ..The comedy of errors rolls on
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March 14th, 2010 at 11:11 am
I know it’s only a pre-season game, and it’s “only” against Richmond, but yesterday’s final NAB Challenge game Essendon had 14 individual goal kickers, with Hille and Williams in that spread as well as Neagle, Monfries, Gumbleton and Ryder… all names I expect to be key to Essendon’s 2010 chances of shooting a winning score.
14 goal scorers doesn’t seem “thin”… even against Richmond.
Danny´s last blog ..uncyherb: @Taezar I meant both, not just the SB. But the SB probably is better.
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March 14th, 2010 at 1:35 pm
@Danny, I agree even though it was just one game, it is a good sign for you Bomber fans. However the question must be asked, is the spread of goal kickers a once off or something that will become regular?
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March 15th, 2010 at 8:56 am
I think the bombers have talent, they have a good group and i sense a real belief, the only thing is we have been shown that a team can be only successful to a certain degree without a key forward. While winning a premiership is not impossible without one, it just makes it a whole lot harder. Essendon I think have a better chance at September than Carlton and West Coast. But they will need to fill the gaps in the forward line quite quickly
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