Tanking for draft picks is the dirty word of the AFL, while people pretend it does not exist Carlton of 2007 and West Coast of 2008 shows it does. The winner of the 2008 premiership (Hawthorn Hawks) raises an interesting issue that is seeing clubs think the ONLY WAY to win a premiership is through the National Draft.
The 2008 Trade Week only saw 6 players switch clubs and clubs trying to off load key players (O’Keefe, Kerr, Didak, McIntosh etc) to get early picks so they can mirror what the Hawks did when they traded players for early draft picks. Clubs do NOT want to use their first round (or even second round) as they may miss out.
So are early picks of the National Draft the answer?
Hawthorn are not the first team to stock up on early round draft picks to build a premiership winning team with St Kilda failing under Grant Thomas in 2004-2006 with around half the team being first round draft picks and Carlton currently on the rise after a good 5 years down at the bottom. So while Hawthorn is not the first, currently they are the only team to win a premiership via draft picks.
Geelong, Sydney and West Coast the winners of the previous 3 years (2007 – 2005) while had first round picks (Judd, Selwood, Corey etc) they did not build their lists just through top draft picks. These 3 premiership lists show that the national draft is not the only way.
Geelong Cats 2007 list dissected
While Geelongs list featured a number of Father/ Son picks with Scarlett, Ablett x2 & Blake the rest of the premiership was built by building the team up from the bottom and changing the culture after a terrible 2006 season.
West Coast 2006 list dissected
West Coast while had Judd (pick 3) and Cousins (Father/ Son) Cox, Lynch, Fletcher, Green & Armstrong all came from the rookie list and played in the 2005 and 2006 sides. The Eagles has a history of producing quality rookie listed players.
Sydney Swans 2005 list dissected
Sydney is afraid of bottoming out due to their flaky supporters (more on this) so Sydney has to recruit via other clubs and other methods. The 2005 and 2006 team lists featured Hall, Ball, Davis, Richards, Jolly and Bolton who were all recruited from other clubs along with Roberts-Thompson (NSW scholarship system) and Kennelly (international rookie) recruited from other means.
The 6 true ways to (re)build a AFL Club list
- Train harder and get the club culture sorted (Geelong 07).
- Trade Week to swap players and picks to fill a hole in your squad (Sydney 05).
- National Draft (Hawks 08).
- Pre season Draft.
- Rookie Draft (West Coast 06).
- Misc means: International Rookie & NSW Scholarship (Sydney 05).
Picking up players like Judd & Franklin in the Draft and being lucky to have quality Father/ Son picks (Ablett & Scarlett) is one way. However the list above shows it IS NOT THE ONLY WAY to build a premiership team.
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October 20th, 2008 at 10:14 am
I think you’ve been a bit generous to the Pussies. They’ve had 10 first round picks in the past ten years (98–07), of whom 6 played in their Premiership team. (That’s not to say that their 2006 wasn’t horrible and that there wasn’t a culture change.)
Hawthorn had 14 first round picks (98–07), 3 of them priority picks (Hodge, Roughhead, Ellis), of whom no less than 8 played in their Premiership team.
Over that same period:
Tigers, 11 1st round with 2 being priority (Deledio, Rance [07]).
Saints, 12 1st round with 3 being priority (Riewoldt, Ball, Koschitzke).
High draft picks are not everything, although they do definitely help. Club culture is, IMO, the most important determinant of success. I don’t think it’s drawing too long a bow to suggest that there are cultural issues at both Richmond and St Kilda. I think these are obvious on-field. By contrast, Geelong and Hawthorn currently have exemplary cultural environments (Sydney had(?) one and West Coast’s on-field culture was supreme).
(based on analysis of draft stats from footywire.com)
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October 20th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Yes Geelong does have top 10 draft picks but the lowest was pick 7 or 8 (I think) while St Kilda, Carlton and Hawthorn had top three picks. Top 3 picks have more guarantee to be better players than picks 6-10. Remember players like Sampi, Bradley, Tarrent etc were picks 6-10 while the list of duds at picks 1-3 is smaller…
I agree that club culture is important and I think its one (if not the main) reason why West Coast slid from premiership to cellar dwellers in two years.
Jermayns last blog post..Body of Lies
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October 22nd, 2008 at 11:36 am
Lots of holes in your statistical analysis there Jermayn. It begs an analysis of games/influence versus pick number. I don’t have the time currently and influence is a highly subjective evaluation anyway — but one day….
As for guarantees from the draft, I think even writing the two words in the same sentence is tempting the footy gods!
For West Coast, it comes down to two names: Judd and Cousins. With those two on the park, Kerr gets the third-best tagger and can have a big influence, not to mention what Judd and Cousins could generate. Take them out and Kerr gets the best shutdown player and there’s precious little behind to step into the void. Whether culture was a factor in Judd’s decision, we don’t yet know.
aussierulesblogs last blog post..Disquieting indications on rule changes
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October 23rd, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Yes its NOT a perfect analysis but what it does show and what I was trying to point out was that recruiting through the National Draft is NOT the only way to win a Grand Final.
Cox is one of the top 10 current players in the comp yet he was a rookie.
And in regards to the Eagles of 08, cousins and judd missing was indeed a huge hole. However the club has made a few comments about them needing to focus on getting their culture sorted before they worry about winning games again.
Thanks for your comments aussierulesblog
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