Comments on: Are National Drafts the ONLY way to win a Grand Final?

By: How Much Is Enough? Was the AFL Tough Enough On Carlton? | The A to F to L of Australian Football

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 01:23:51 +0000

[...] If you cut out their top 5 selections and priorities it effectively stops this bargaining power.(Geelong built a Premiership list with no priorities or top 5 picks, it can be [...]

By: Jermayn

Jermayn — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 06:22:07 +0000

Yes its NOT a perfect analysis but what it does show and what I was trying to point out was that recruiting through the National Draft is NOT the only way to win a Grand Final.

Cox is one of the top 10 current players in the comp yet he was a rookie.

And in regards to the Eagles of 08, cousins and judd missing was indeed a huge hole. However the club has made a few comments about them needing to focus on getting their culture sorted before they worry about winning games again.

Thanks for your comments aussierulesblog

By: aussierulesblog

aussierulesblog — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 03:36:57 +0000

Lots of holes in your statistical analysis there Jermayn. It begs an analysis of games/influence versus pick number. I don’t have the time currently and influence is a highly subjective evaluation anyway — but one day…. As for guarantees from the draft, I think even writing the two words in the same sentence is tempting the footy gods!

For West Coast, it comes down to two names: Judd and Cousins. With those two on the park, Kerr gets the third-best tagger and can have a big influence, not to mention what Judd and Cousins could generate. Take them out and Kerr gets the best shutdown player and there’s precious little behind to step into the void. Whether culture was a factor in Judd’s decision, we don’t yet know.

aussierulesblogs last blog post..Disquieting indications on rule changes

By: Jermayn

Jermayn — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 02:21:38 +0000

Yes Geelong does have top 10 draft picks but the lowest was pick 7 or 8 (I think) while St Kilda, Carlton and Hawthorn had top three picks. Top 3 picks have more guarantee to be better players than picks 6-10. Remember players like Sampi, Bradley, Tarrent etc were picks 6-10 while the list of duds at picks 1-3 is smaller... I agree that club culture is important and I think its one (if not the main) reason why West Coast slid from premiership to cellar dwellers in two years. Jermayns last blog post..Body of Lies

By: aussierulesblog

aussierulesblog — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 02:14:12 +0000

I think you’ve been a bit generous to the Pussies. They’ve had 10 first round picks in the past ten years (98–07), of whom 6 played in their Premiership team. (That’s not to say that their 2006 wasn’t horrible and that there wasn’t a culture change.)

Hawthorn had 14 first round picks (98–07), 3 of them priority picks (Hodge, Roughhead, Ellis), of whom no less than 8 played in their Premiership team.

Over that same period:
Tigers, 11 1st round with 2 being priority (Deledio, Rance [07]).
Saints, 12 1st round with 3 being priority (Riewoldt, Ball, Koschitzke).

High draft picks are not everything, although they do definitely help. Club culture is, IMO, the most important determinant of success. I don’t think it’s drawing too long a bow to suggest that there are cultural issues at both Richmond and St Kilda. I think these are obvious on-field. By contrast, Geelong and Hawthorn currently have exemplary cultural environments (Sydney had(?) one and West Coast’s on-field culture was supreme).

(based on analysis of draft stats from footywire.com)