After just two rounds of the AFL season it has become pretty clear which teams are Premiership contenders and which teams are purely ‘making up the numbers’.
The Contenders
Geelong and Hawthorn (wait until Lewis, Sewell and a few others come back) remain strong whilst the Saints and Dogs looked to have already improved on last year. Carlton have flown out of the blocks but I will reserve judgment until they play the above sides and the Pies still have a dangerous element about them. You could throw a blanket over about 6 or 7 other teams and whoever gets the best run with injuries and umpiring decisions will see some September action.
The Dead Wood
So what of the teams at the other end of the spectrum, the clubs we all knew deep down would occupy the bottom end of the ladder? Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle and Sydney are all clubs, in my opinion, that have no chance of playing off in a GF within the next five years.
Dustin Fletcher would be an awesome inclusion for the Hawks & Essendon could have gotten some good players for him.
Does your club have List Cloggers
Which begs the question; if there are players on their lists that will not be there when they next contest for a flag wouldn’t it be a wise decision to move these players on ASAP?? My answer is an emphatic YES!! Otherwise teams are merely treading water.
Sentiment is dead and buried in football and the quicker football clubs realise this, the better. The NBA is a proven template of how smart business decisions can re-build your organization quicker then simply bottoming out completely. GM’s in the States have no hesitation in trading quality players if it means that their club gets young talent, draft picks and salary cap space. It becomes a win-win situation.
Examples of Possible Smart Trading
Whilst I understand that the AFL is a long way from the bright lights, private jets and multi-million dollar contracts of the NBA, the business aspect of the two remain the same.
Example One: Hawthorn’s need for a Key Backman
Hawthorn are in desperate need of a key backman and knew before last year’s trading period that Croad had some serious complications with his injury. Essendon lacks depth and class through the midfield and some young key position prospects and their key backman in Dustin Fletcher has two years left max.
If I was list manager at Hawthorn I would not have hesitated in offering up say, Travis Tuck and Mitch Thorp for Dustin Fletcher.
The Bombers get two potential 10-year players and give Dustin a pat on the back and a spiel along the lines of
“Odds are you won’t be around next time we are contesting for a Premiership so with that in mind thanks for your wonderful service, no hard feelings, go and get some bucks and finish your career at a club that has every chance of winning another flag and needs your services more than we do. Come back and be defensive coach when you retire, etc.”
Both teams come out as winners.
Example Two: Bulldogs need for a Key Forward & Fremantle’s need for Pace
Matt Pavlich is another that springs to mind, he will never win a flag at Freo but put him up front for the Dogs and they rival Geelong for Premiership favouritism.
If Bulldogs offered a win-win trade for a KPP, their premiership dreams would become a reality
At the end of last season Farren Ray was desperate for a new home, if the Dogs had sent him, Josh Hill and and their first round draft pick to Freo for Pavlich then again both teams come out winners.
The Dockers address their midfield problems by gaining a former top 5 draft pick with five seasons under his belt, an immensely talented young Western Australian in Hill and a first round pick. The Dogs solve their key forward woes and still have the rights to Ayce Cordy in the second round of the draft. Win-win.
Other Examples of Clubs getting rid of Dead Wood
Two seasons ago the Doggies were sniffing around Russell Robertson and last season it was Barry Hall. These clubs should be jumping for joy that teams are willing to offer up young talent for their aging players and not have the attitude of ‘thanks but no thanks’.
Again on the weekend we saw LLoyd and Lucas struggle with the unpredictability and looseness of the young Essendon midfield. Imagine what these guys could offer the solid and silky midfields of Adelaide, Collingwood, The Dogs and Cats.
Your Opinion on Clubs Trading Smarter
I’m interested to see what other players people think should be moved on to create win-win situations for both teams. And to any Essendon supporters out there, would you be happy to see Lloyd, Lucas and Fletcher in another team’s colours if it meant you got some quality young talent??
The time has come for clubs to move with the times and smarten up. You can only tread water for so long before you drown…
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April 8th, 2009 at 11:10 am
You been listening to the Podcast? I have been saying this for years and been pooh pooh’d be fans of clubs that I said should trade players! I call it the Hawks model. Remember that they traded Croad/McPharlin, Thompson and Hay and of course the Veale deal (Veal traded and Rawling’s let go).
Melbourne should have done it also but probably had nothing to trade. You have to say “will the player be around for the next flag”. If not, get in the kids. Especially (sadly) while there is priority picks as well! It is the ultimate form of tanking.
The problem is we are still to connected to our Suburban roots!
Good write up!
Phillip Molly Malones last blog post..AFL Power Rankings – Round 2 – Sorting things out, sort of
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April 8th, 2009 at 11:30 am
Clubs like Carlton are going to find themselves in trouble. Building a list around an aging Fev, Judd & the like is good in the short term, but they’ll retire when the others become good.
If the Hawks lose this week & possibly the next, we could find the Clarkson method in the Brown & Gold could be Fools Gold – the biggest hangover since Jim Morrison went to Paris in 1971.
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April 8th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Another example from a non-Victorian pov is that West Coast were looking at getting Mathew Lloyd over (along with Fevola), if they had either off them for a first round pick and someone like Rosa/ Fletcher etc. The Eagles would no doubt have won the 2005 Grand Final along with maybe playing in the 2007 Grand Final (they failed in both finals by less than a kick).
Sydney have done it with great success. They have recruited players like:
- Ted Richards (best Swans player in the 2006 GF),
- Jolly (2nd best ruckman at mo in Dream Team),
- Hall,
- Matner/ Shaw (easily in their best 22),
- Davis (won the preliminary final) &
- Bolton (AA backman)
btw Phillip, yes I listen to your Podcast’s every week but I was not the author of this article (Deano was)
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April 9th, 2009 at 6:55 am
would you seriously consider giving up a Lloyd or Fevola for a lowly 1st round pick & either Rosa/Fletcher?? I wouldn’t.
Why would you trade a proven goal kicker for a slow midfielder?? We have enough midfield problems.
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April 9th, 2009 at 11:03 am
@craig eyles – Rosa and Fletcher among Kerr & Judd were talked about a few years ago when the Eagles nibbled at Lloyd and Fevola. It would not make sense now but back a few years ago it could have been a win/ win for both sides as Essendon back then had no midfield what so ever and the Eagles struggled down forward with their strong midfield.
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