After taking a couple of weeks off, the rankings are back but this week I’ve decided to do something a little different. I’ve taken to the AFL website and run some numbers through the ladder predictor. In effect, it’s what the rankings try to reflect. What I found out was that there is a slight chance that a team which was widely tipped at the start of the year to not win a game, in fact, the bookies had started paying out bets on the wooden spoon for this team, could somehow make it into 8th spot!
How is this possible? Well, mainly due to me predicting that Carlton will have a bleak remainder of the season, and Richmond winning all but 2 games and most of the others outside the current 8 taking games off each other. In fact I have the Tigers winning 10 games and making the 8 with a game to spare. The turnaround game would be Carlton v Richmond and also Carlton v Essendon.
The top 4 will likely stay as is, the only factor that will change things will be Collingwood and if it can beat the top 2 sides in the run home. There is very little chance of the Bulldogs getting into the top 4 which probably seems disappointing after the early season optimism and will likely send them to Perth for the second week of the finals.
At the other end of the ladder, the Eagles have taken over as wooden spoon favourites and they are facing a lean period by only winning 2 more games for the year, and with Port Adelaide players out to secure their spots on next years list you can expect them to lift their game.
Anyway, here is my final ladder. Give it a go yourselves and see how it differs for you.
The finals race is not over yet.
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July 16th, 2010 at 9:19 am
Am I guessing you right that you are suggesting that the Hawks wins would be Port, Lions, Melbourne and Freo in Tassie? If that is right, that would mean you would think that the hawks v Swans at the SCG would decide who plays a home game week 1 of the finals, right?
Phillip Molly Malone´s last [type]: AFL Teams for Round 16- 2010
July 16th, 2010 at 10:04 am
That’s right, but what I didn’t do was play with the margins. If the hawks have massive wins against those lowly teams then they’ll rise above. Swans are finding their stride now and will prove difficult to beat at home.
July 16th, 2010 at 12:44 pm
@the_tony, Hawks v Swans at the SCG? You would have to go for Sydney hey?
Jermayn´s last [type]: 2010 AFL Round 16 Tips
July 16th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
@Jermayn, Absolutely. Swans are getting it together and wih Goodes finally playing in the middle, they will be hard to stop.
July 16th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
Still think Goodes needs to play forward as Bradshaw has struggled getting onto the ground this year & they don’t have anyone else to kick their goals…
July 16th, 2010 at 10:33 am
You have the Bulldogs losing 3 (Geel, Adel?? Syd??) and Freo only losing 2 (WB? Haw?). I wouldn’t neccessarily call the WB top 4 chances as remote given their draw and percentage and the way they finished the home and away last season.
Agree about Rich, but aren’t you underestimating the Crows?
July 16th, 2010 at 11:41 am
@Bob, I have the Crows beating the Lions and Port as definites. If they are lucky, they’ll beat the Bulldogs at home but the rest are against quality teams away from home or against the Cats (as in tonight).
I have them losing to the Tigers as well (at MCG). They are both at the same level but I feel the younger cubs will run the 30 somethings off their legs.
As for the Bulldogs and Freo, they have pretty easy games to come with the defining game being round 17 in Melbourne. If Freo win that, they will stich up 4th spot for sure, but the Dogs still have the Cats to deal with.
Bulldogs will also be facing a tough game this week as Port will have “new coach syndrome” on their side. Could put the spanner in the kennel right there.
July 16th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
Richmond in the top 8? Wow that will be the turn around of the decade if it comes true! However as I said in my tips, I think they will finish 9th instead…
btw good to see the power ranking back!
Jermayn´s last [type]: 2010 AFL Round 16 Tips
July 16th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
@Jermayn, Maybe I’m seduced by all the Tiger hype but they are beating all those teams around them and that’s pretty much all they have to do to make the 8.
Just remember, if it pans out, you saw it here first!
July 16th, 2010 at 9:24 pm
Mate if Richmond make the top 8 I will bow down to your greater judgement. Still think it’s more likely they will finish 9th than anything…