12 Comments For This Post

1. AFL Betting Blog Says:
   July 21st, 2009 at 2:26 pm

   Carlton have a better chance of beating Collingwood than Adelaide in my opinion. I would prefer to beat Adelaide though because going by your prediction we’d have to play the Crows in round 22 and week 1 of the finals.
   AFL Betting Blog´s last blog ..Round 17 Odds

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2. Jermayn Says:
   July 21st, 2009 at 2:34 pm

   Understand what you mean but Collingwood would be unhappy about their pathetic performance last week & Adelaide do not have the best record at the Dome.

   If what I wrote above happens, Adelaide & Carlton will play each other twice in 2 weeks. Along with
   - Brisbane & Port twice in 3 weeks and
   - Geelong & Bulldogs twice in 3 weeks

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3. aussierulesblog Says:
   July 21st, 2009 at 7:52 pm

   Bombers to beat WC, but go down to Dockers? Huh? Which Fremantle team are we talking about (and what are you smoking when you write this stuff)?

   Brisbane and Freo games are definitely winnable and Hawthorn are no certs to win in the last round. Bombers could EASILY finish with 13 wins. Depending on what happens in the meantime, the Bombers could also give the Saints more than a scare.
   aussierulesblog´s last blog ..The timing is in the luck of the draw

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4. Mike Says:
   July 21st, 2009 at 8:03 pm

   i find it interesting you would have the saints and geelong lose to the bulldogs? any particular reason other than the exclusion of kosi and dawson this week for st kilda?
   also interesting the fact that the lions will beat the bulldogs at the gabba, yes it is brisbanes home ground, but since 2004 the dogs have played brisbane 6 times, 4 at the gabba and 2 in melbourne, and the dogs have won 5 out of six including 3 out of 4 wins in brisbane. they have a good record there and its likely they can do it again.
   i also doubt that port adelaide will make the finals unless they pull their head in and start playing well they may slip out of contention, and in saying that i beleive hawthorn may just scrape into the finals.

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5. Jermayn Says:
   July 22nd, 2009 at 8:49 am

   Yes AussieRules & Mike, a lot of the decisions are based on theory and gut feeling and its almost impossible to predict 100% what will happen in 6 weeks time. Jon Brown may break a leg and they could slip down to 8th or 9th. Essendon’s Lucas & Lloyd may find form and kick their team to 13 wins like you suggest. No one knows but I will try and explain why I predicted what I did…

   I predicted Essendon to loose to Fremantle as they play West Coast away, then Brisbane who play well at the MCG and then ladder leaders in St Kilda and then they have to travel again to Subiaco. Twice in four weeks, you have the Dogs & Geelong who struggled playing at Perth twice in three weeks this year and they are a much better (seasoned) side than the Bombers. I just think it will be too much for their younger players…

   Port have an easier run home than any of the other sides imo and based on that, I see them sneaking into the finals. They’ve now resigned Williams and that should also bring some stability.

   Kosi & Dawson are big outs! Hudghton is no guarantee to return and that means Maguire will have to come in and he has NOT played all year. From what I have gathered the Dogs are really keen to knock off Geelong and if it is to happen, it will in the regular season.

   Yes the Dogs have a good current record against the Lions but that was while the Dogs where playing finals & Brisbane collecting draft picks. Brisbane are a totally different team and the Gabba is fast becoming a hard place to win at.
   Jermayn´s last blog ..The run home to the finals

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6. aussierulesblog Says:
   July 22nd, 2009 at 11:03 am

   BTW, here’s my prediction for the end of Rnd 22 (courtesy of Contested Footy’s excellent Ladder Predictor.

   St_Kilda
   Geelong
   W_Bulldogs
   Adelaide
   Essendon
   Collingwood
   Brisbane
   P_Adelaide
   Carlton
   Sydney
   Kangaroos
   Hawthorn
   W_Coast
   Fremantle
   Richmond
   Melbourne
   aussierulesblog´s last blog ..The timing is in the luck of the draw

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7. Jermayn Says:
   July 22nd, 2009 at 11:07 am

   Interesting you have the Hawks to slip behind Sydney & the Roos and Carlton missing out on the finals! I sense your ‘Bomber-ness’ coming out

   Would love to hear why you have the top 10 that way! Which games they will loose/ win etc

   In regards to the bottom 6, I’m doing up a post at the moment which should be published by this arvo.

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8. aussierulesblog Says:
   July 24th, 2009 at 8:27 pm

   Bomber-ness has nothing to do with it Jermayn. I used the ladder predictor, went through each of the remining games and made an assessment of who I thought would win. This is the ladder that resulted. Perhaps optimistic on the Dons, but not too much.
   aussierulesblog´s last blog ..The timing is in the luck of the draw

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9. Jermayn Says:
   July 25th, 2009 at 6:32 pm

   When I mean “Bomber-ness” it means you tend to tip the Bombers in the 50/ 50 games. Every person who is soft for a team or supports a team does it, nothing against that.

   Jermayn´s last blog ..2009 AFL Round Seventeen Tips

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10. Jermayn Says:
    July 30th, 2009 at 7:37 pm

    So Bombers to miss the final 8, not looking so silly now hey AussieRules? I dont mean to rub it in but my point that they are looking sore has some merits now with big four outs for the game against the Eagles (now in danger to loose) and that shock loss to Richmond.

    I like their game style but I just think they have had their run. Hope for your sake im wrong though Jermayn´s last blog ..Why Are St Kilda Undefeated?

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11. george Says:
    August 5th, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    Essendon are totaly spent wont make finals,port or Hawthorn both will have little impact.They are too inconsistient.Stkilda are Hawthorn from last year and will take the flag.Geelong are just a very good team and wont win another flag.

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12. Jermayn Says:
    August 6th, 2009 at 10:44 am

    Thanks George for your thoughts. Over at my latest post, we are discussing whether Geelong are vulnerable, resting for the finals or like you say will not win another premiership…

    Agree with Essendon that they are tired and running out of steam, their last two weeks loosing to Richmond & West Coast are good examples and the fixtures are not too kind to them either…

    Im thinking that unless Geelong get into some form and get some players back, it will be a St Kilda premiership year.

    [Reply to Comment]

Discussion elsewhere

1. The 2009 Race for Draft Picks | Articles | Kick2Kick.net | Kick2Kick.net Says:
   July 22nd, 2009 at 1:06 pm

   [...] we looked at the teams in the race for the finals and today we look at the other six teams. For them the last 6 rounds is all about draft picks, [...]

2. 2009 AFL Round Seventeen Wrapup | AFL Round Wrapup | Kick2Kick.net | Kick2Kick.net Says:
   July 27th, 2009 at 10:50 am

   [...] Can Essendon make the finals as they look tired, injured and have an interesting race home to the finals? [...]

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