Why are Hawthorn struggling so much this year after wining the premiership in 2008. Did they over achieve last year or have injuries really impacted their year? Lets look at their injuries and other incidents that is likely to see the Hawks the only team in 10 years to fail making the finals after winning the premiership the year before.
The Injuries
Yes injuries have not been kind to the Hawks with several players missing parts of the Pre Season in Hodge, Ellis, Franklin and Gilham etc and having key defender Croad miss the whole year to date along with back up key position players Bailey & Boyle recovering from knee reconstructions.
Along with only four players having played all 19 games so far in Bateman, Franklin, Roughead & Mitchell. While Roughead has played all 19, he will now miss the rest of the year with arthroscopic surgery on a knee.
However to be honest every club has injuries to their player list. Lets instead look at the Hawks best 25 players that have played less than 2/3rds of the season (14 or less games).
- Robert Campbell 13 games (although can be argued not in best 22).
- Trent Croad 0 games.
- Stuart Dew 11 games (although can be argued not in best 22).
- Xavier Ellis 11 games.
- Stephen Gilham 7 games.
- Michael Osborne 14 games.
- Mark Williams 13 games.
- Clinton Young 5 games.
- Rick Ladson 3 games.
While 7 9 best 25 players missing more than 5 games looks big, to me it does not explain the ‘reason’ why they are struggling. (Thanks to Phillip for adding Young & Ladson to list).
The Poor List Management
Croad injured his foot in the 2008 grand final and while most did not think he would miss the whole 2009 season, surely instead of chasing O’Keefe and Green in the 2008 Trading period or drafting midfielders they should have focused on back ups for their defense with question marks on Croads return.
The foot is a hard injury to get right, just ask King, Hird & forgotten Geelongs CHB Egan, what Geelong did in 2008 was recruit mature age Harry Taylor who has managed to fill the gap.
While hindsight is good, surely keeping Dawson or trade/ recruit a back up key defender would have been a wise move. From the top of my mind, ex-Melbourne Carroll and Leigh Brown were all available along with Post (picked up by Richmond) and Jones (West Coast) from the National Draft.
The Game Plan
Every premiership team has their game plan copied and this year every other team is using their zone and focusing on how to defeat the Rolling Zone. What is scary though is the fact that they cannot beat their own zone or have a back up game plan.
While I understand Hodge being played in defense for the finals last year to fill a hole or two. It is however beyond me to explain why they have left him there for the majority of the year. His left foot is way too important in the middle of the ground where he can provide run, an accurate kick to forwards and at goals.
All of the above equals that the Hawks have been unable to win more than 3 games in a row and only been able to win two games in a row 3 times so far. This has not allowed them to get any momentum at all. I have listed the worse 6 big moral sapping performances against teams they should have beaten in:
- A 38 point loss to Sydney in round 2 at ANZ.
- 30 point loss to Port at the MCG in round 4.
- 44 point loss in round 7 to Essendon at Telstra Dome.
- A 42 point loss to Brisbane at Aurora in round 12.
- Round 13 a 20 point loss to West Coast and the
- big loss by 88 points against the Bulldogs in round 14 where they failed to kick a first half goal.
So what do you think? Which factor has been the most damaging to the Hawks premiership defense this year? Do you think they over achieved last year and will they be a force again next year?
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August 12th, 2009 at 10:12 am
a) Give me a break! To even suggest that Campbell wouldn’t be in the best 22 is a joke. The question isn’t would he, its how to you clone him so he can play ruck and down back!
b) Players you missed from your list that are certainly in the Best 25:
Clinton Young 5
Rick Ladson 3
c) You could argue that that the following at some point during the year or were expected to be in it also missed:
Max Bailey 0 (just coming back through VFL. Might play yet this year)
Tim Boyle 0 (Forgotten man. Fully fit would push for a game)
Garry Moss 8 (Was playing very well until injured)
Beau Muston 5 (Showed signs when he got on the park)
Mitch Thorpe 1 (Huge wraps but injured too much)
D)The argument on List management has some merit except that their first pick was Schoenmakers who was picked to play down back. I love that Zac has done so well for the Saints, but you can’t assume that he would have done so at the hawks. I you look at it, if he was a month or so older, his career would probably be over now (thats by how much he qualified for the Rookie list). There was talk of personality issues at the hawks. Carrol is an interesting one.
e) You missed arguably the most important factor of all. Age and inexperience! If the Hawks hadn’t won the flag last year. Lets say were beat on Prelim night by the Saints and had the year that they had this year, no one would batter an eye lid. In fact you would talk about how well they had done with all there injuries and such a young side.
The Saints lost 7 players from there side on the weekend. Experienced, top line players and they were still on average (according to footywire.com) a year older and 20 games more experienced per player. That is an amazing stat! So although the Saints lost a lot of players, many of the players coming in where experienced players. I think only Stevens was a first or second year player. Plus there ins where mostly fit guys that were trying to break into the side. Some of the hawks ins were young and coming back from injuries (from memory)
F) Other things I missed. The injury count does include the players that missed large chunks of preseason. Hugely important. How often does a player have a breakout season and you hear it is the first time they had a preseason. Game plan is hard to judge when you are forced to change 4 players a week every week. Time will tell if it works or not. Seemed fine against the Pies and Cats a few rounds ago. But for bad kicking, we would have beat cats and port and have 8th pretty much ours.
If you ask me, this is the year that we had to have and (assuming that not many of the injuries go on into next year) we should be back about the
mark and with such a young list, should be set to weather the GC17 and WS18 storm (especially with a possible 6,7,8 pick).
JMTC
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August 12th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Thanks for your comment Phillip, some very good insight which adds nicely to my original points (including you correcting a few bits – point b).
a) Why did Campbell miss out on the finals last year Phillip if he is in the best 22 twice over?
c) Agree with Moss but Bailey is unproven, Boyle has failed to play/ cement spot down back when given chances & Muston was dropped after 2 good games & then some average games. Have not seen Thorpe play so will take your word on him.
d) My point is that yes Schoenmakers has played down back but 1) he was recruited as a forward who can play back and 2) he is too small to play as a main CHB/ FB like Dawson & Carroll.
e) Age and experience is an interesting argument. How many first or second year players did Hawthorn have in the game?
f) I did mention the lack of pre season fitness to key players in Hodge, Franklin & Ellis etc.
I do not know if a fall from grace like this year is what you need after winning a premiership but if that gives you peace about this year. Even if you get your team fully fit there is still too many questions on the ruck division (does Campbell play ruck or back) and the backline with Croad having question marks over his foot.
btw what does JMTC mean?
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August 12th, 2009 at 11:02 am
On Campbell, I think you are confusing him with Taylor. Campbell played first ruck last year but has had to play down back to cover for Croad.
Definitely some are unproven but Boyle has shown his worth in previous years, just seems injuries chase him around. I don’t believe Muston was dropped, I believe he was injured and is just comming back through the VFL and might play this week (I could be wrong). Thorpe is an interesting one, some are saying looked great as a kid but has a major medical defect (for want of a better term) that means might never play.
d) There is an argument there. I am coming around to the idea that Roughy may need to be played down back next year, especially if Croad is done!
e) About 4-6 (probably up to 8 under 3 years) Average age of the side on the weekend, 23yr 3mths (one of the 3 youngest sides on the weekend)
F) missed that, sorry
Of course I would rather be playing for a flag, but if you have to have injuries, at least our group of kids have played some footy and now know what they need to do over the preseason to get ready for AFL footy.
The scariest thing is, if Port lose to the Blues and other games go to the script, its not out of the question that the hawks just need to beat the Tigers and Bombers to make the finals. Not having Ellis back though will be a huge loss.
Phillip Molly Malone´s last blog ..AFL Teams – Round 19, 2009 – Suspending Betting? Really?
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August 12th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Just had a look using DreamTeam as a guide & only Sewell & Lewis have been double digit improvers on average from last year.
Youngsters like Rioli, Kennedy, Murphy, McGlynn & Tuck have been good, too. And you can’t forget Mitchell’s effors this season & Bateman has marginally improved.
I’d rather see Renouf than Campbell in the side myself.
My main concerns are the disappointing seaons of Franklin, Hodge, Guerra & Brown. I’ll let Young & Osbourne off the hook with their injuries, but even Young struggled to get a game at times last season.
If the Hawks played the same team this week (& they won’t coz Roughies gone), they’d be at 76.3% possesion strength & 80.8% scoring. Pies, Dockers & Bombers have all had injury bouts this season. Their scoring power is the 6th best in the league & yet they let games slip whether through arrogance or ill-disciplined play. The Port loss at the MCG was a prime example of that.
Clarkson also needs to realise that the “zone” is a dinosaur tactic that’s even been abandoned in Europe. Desperately needs a plan B or his questions could be asked if they finish 9th or 10th next year.
craig eyles´s last blog ..Sandown Hillside Quaddie Picks
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August 12th, 2009 at 11:53 am
Okay, I will let you off as your not a hawks fan but I don’t think Young played a VFL game last year and missed about 5 games with injury (of which we were like 2-3 and were like xx-2 when he played). I call him the Factor as he is a hugely important player! Hes not a gun in his own right but him playing means either you have to watch him (and open someone else up) or let him run free on the wing getting the ball moving quickly.
The Port game we level going into the last quarter and got run off our feet. That week the side had the flu run through it. That says something to me.
Following on the “year we had to have” argument. We are going to have a 3-4 week longer preseason with (if we lose this week) players getting an extra week or two for surgery (watch them go to Hospital if we lose this week). A better preseason then last year will be a huge difference. How often do players have a breakout year and you hear they had a big preseason for the first time.
The big issue is how many of the players won’t get over there injuries. The ones that worry me are Croad, Thorpe and Ladson.
Phillip Molly Malone´s last blog ..AFL Teams – Round 19, 2009 – Suspending Betting? Really?
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August 12th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Agree that the kids (Moss, Schoenmakers etc) getting games into them is always a good thing and with the older guys getting a full pre season it should be a much better year next year on paper.
I do not think Roughead playing in defense is the answer as it only effects your forward line. I think some clever recruiting and list managing would be a better option. I think you could recruit at least one established/ young defender from a rival club:
- Richmond have 3-4 guys who can play KP in defense
- West Coast have Spanger, MacKenzie & Wilkes
Jermayn´s last blog ..Why Hawthorn are Struggling
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August 13th, 2009 at 9:29 am
in any other year i would probably except injuries as an excuse but with what i’ve seen geelong go through this year it just doesn’t wash with me.
every one knows they were lucky to pinch last years GF and they need to stop making excuses. The hunger that permeated throughout that team in the finals no longer exisits and with injury complications, retirements etc I think it will be a few years before they will contest for a flag again…
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August 13th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
I think your right Deano and you can safely question the Hawks hunger! Last year they were almost robotic in the way they worked, covered players and almost flogged themselves to death for each other and the team. This year we have seen several times players yelling abuse at each other for failing to work at the game plan.
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August 13th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
“This year we have seen several times players yelling abuse at each other for failing to work at the game plan.” Wouldn’t that be more likely explained by the fact that the players aren’t use to each other as they were last year (having a core group that played most of the games over the previous 2 years) so where as last year they were in the correct position, inexperienced players are in the right position?
I hind the hunger thing interesting. Seeing most of the games, I seem to see guys doing the hard things. Its more the skill things that are letting us down. I think you would find if you looked that we would have one of the highest number of goals against from turnovers! Thats a skill thing not a hunger thing. The hunger argument is just a sexy argument then there a young side that has had a ton of injuries. If we had finished 4th not 1st last year, we would be being hailed this year for staying in the finals hunt so long with our injury list!
Phillip Molly Malone´s last blog ..Podcast – Pies Coaching and the Win-Win-Win Richo trade
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August 13th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
with all due respect mate, it starts in the middle, have a good look at the first half of the Dogs v Hawks game and you will see the midfield of Mitchell, Sewell,Bateman and Lewis(who were all animals last year) getting absolutely slaughtered by the Dogs who were fiercer and more committed at the ball.
Again your injury list is no worse then Geelongs and they have managed to stay top2 all year. I am one of many who tipped Hawthorn to finish top4 this year and at their very best they are capable of anything, however,this year due to a number of circumstances they have not been able to handle the pressure applied to them. there are no excuses. their depth is simply not as good as other top4 teams.
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August 13th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
I would like to forget the Bulldogs game. It was a bad one!
The Geelong injuries have only been since the Saints game and how have they done in that time? Bringing up Geelongs injuries supports my argument (unless your saying their hunger has dropped off as well)!
Also Geelong is a more mature side! Look at the sides when they played each other in round 17. The Cats (even with all their injuries) were still over 2 years per player older then the Hawks and 35 games per player older then the hawks.
Young sides will be up and down the Hawks have one of the youngest sides in the league! (and that is the side on the park not just the list (which is the youngest in the league))
Phillip Molly Malone´s last blog ..Podcast – Pies Coaching and the Win-Win-Win Richo trade
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August 13th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
But even before the St Kilda game, Geelong had injuries, yes not as many as currently but still players like Harley, Hunt & Ottens where big injuries. and yes your right Phillip, Geelong suck at the moment.
Did they really have the youngest in the league?
Guess it raises a question about people stating their lists as youngest or not, I think it should be added along with the games played. Buddy is 22 but has played 100 games, so while he is young in age, he is mature in games played.
I think even you Phillip would have to agree with this. While Hodge & Franklin had limited pre seasons, they along with Mitchell and Batemen have played majority of the year and are your top players. Its the next level of players that have either been injured or not stepped up to the mark.
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August 13th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Yep on the Games being listed with age and as you can see, cats where 2 years ahead in that Category as well.
On Depth, I think our depth is fine yet inexperienced and that is why I think this is the “year we had to have”. Of course we didn’t want it but (assuming injuries aren’t permanent) it at least game the kids a snip and we found a few that will be better in years to come!
Phillip Molly Malone´s last blog ..Podcast – Pies Coaching and the Win-Win-Win Richo trade
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August 13th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
“The Geelong injuries have only been since the Saints game.”
that’s funny i thought Ottens, Egan, Ling, Ablett and Scarlett all missed games early when the Cats remained unbeaten…
“Bringing up Geelongs injuries supports my argument (unless your saying their hunger has dropped off as well)!”
How does it…they are top 2 you are bottom 8!!!
“Young sides will be up and down the Hawks have one of the youngest sides in the league!”
Yes they are young but they have played finals in the last 2 years and won a flag. Surely that kind of experience counteracts the youth of the list. AND If your side is so inexperienced then you are supporting my argument that it will be a long road back. You will never have that same 22 from the GF again so enjoy it for what it was. Crawford is gone, Dew is gone, Doubtful whether Croad will be back so that leaves too big a load on Gilham. Plus teams have learnt not to kick the ball anywhere near Luke Hodge which has taken probably your biggest strength of all away.
There is no doubt your side has the talent but talent is not everything. Your team needs to realise that the game evolves so much from year to year and planning that can win you a flag one year can be worked out and become obsolete the next. There are big decisions that need to be made at your club over the off-season and i am pretty sure that you will get it right because i think AL Clarkson is an outstanding young coach.
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August 13th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Oh to have only 3-5 injuries!
@Deano: But how do you explain Geelongs form since the Saints game? Have they just lost their hunger?
Phillip Molly Malone´s last blog ..Podcast – Pies Coaching and the Win-Win-Win Richo trade
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August 13th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
I think your depth will be there next year when players like Moss, Scheonmakers, Whitcross etc have played 10 odd games in 2009 but until this year they simply did not have the depth as it currently shows. I do not think you can say you have depth when they have not yet played a game….
btw do you think the Hawks need to look at a key defender or would you be more happy with risking your forward line potency by taking Roughead away to defense?
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August 13th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
sorry i forgot hunt and harley. plus mooneys suspension
no, their form. they are not losing to bottom teams. they lost to Brisbane at the Gabba and Carlton, both top 8 sides who i’m sure most would agree are capable of anything on their day. what do they have to play for?? they have top2 sewn up. your blokes were playing for a spot in the top 8 for a chance to defend your flag against a team that was missing their entire on ball division, their best forward and their two best backman and still got out hustled and out tackled and outplayed.
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August 13th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
So what your saying is that they happened to totally lose all form the exact week after they almost beat the side that no other side has been able to beat all year (oh, and them losing like 6 players)?
We definitely got flogged by the Saints but it wasn’t down to hunger as you suggest. They lost 7, we did lose an addition 3 for that game. Yes not the quality of players that the Saints lost, but our replacements weren’t as experienced as the Saints replacements and the form (as you point out) of the players around them not so good either.
We have to regroup and hopefully a good preseason will come this year. Fitness isn’t what it has been and its showed. Early in the season we were in most games at Half time but got over run.
Phillip Molly Malone´s last blog ..Podcast – Pies Coaching and the Win-Win-Win Richo trade
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August 13th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
i’m putting Geelong’s form down to a mixture of things. Again they have NOTHING to play for at the moment, win lose or draw they will finish second so why not rest some blokes who have niggles? they are able to do this because they covered for key(quality) players who were injured earlier in the year and won enough games to guarantee a top4 spot for the third year running. good luck to them i say… i still think they are the team to beat and they are making no excuses for the way they are playing(unlike some other teams)…
“We definitely got flogged by the Saints but it wasn’t down to hunger as you suggest.”
i don’t know how you define hunger but around 115 tackles in a game that didn’t feature their best two tacklers does a pretty good job for me.
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August 13th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Personally I do not know how you can monitor hunger in a team. I think the best is to look at Geelong in 2007 and the Hawks in 2008 and look at them this year and I think its safe to say they are not as hungry as before. Injuries/ form/ luck aside and just look at their stats and position on the ladder.
@Phillip – I think we need to look at the Saints loss in perspective. The Saints had 8 of their best 10-12 players out last week. The Hawks had 8 out of your best 25 out but they still smashed you. To have 115 tackles against a team like Hawthorn who prided themselves on the hard footy, surely that is a bit embarrassing.
@Deano – As discussed in “Why Geelong are Vulnerable“, I do not think you can play with form and Geelong run the risk of being a Carlton of the mid 90s and Essendon (1999-2001) and that is failing to become a great team by only winning one premiership…
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